First election poll after transition Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández, to the second presidential tour The event, which will take place on June 19, reveals that there is a technical tie between the two candidates.
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But for the first time in the entire campaign, the Historical Pact candidate does not appear ahead of the Colombian electoral choices: Thus, of the 1,200 citizens surveyed by the National Advisory Center for CM& Newscast, 41 percent said they would vote for “engineer”, while 39 percent said they would vote for Gustavo Petro.
Since the margin of error of the sample is 2.8% (95% confidence), two points are in the technical tie range.
In the latest CNC poll released by Semana on May 19, there was a technical draw between Petro and Hernández in the second round with 40.5 percent intent. Now, technical parity remains in the measurement after the first round, but Rodolfo is up 0.5 percent and the Historical Pact candidate is down 1.5 percent.
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But in any case, what is reflected in the responses of those polled by the CNC is the rise of the campaign of the former mayor of Bucaramanga, who had already filled all the polls last month but whose approval was the big election stick. last Sunday. , When Rodolfo managed to get his second round ticket from Fico Gutiérrez.
The survey surveyed 1,200 Colombians from 43 municipalities in the country by phone between 30 and 31 May. And another of the most revealing data is the high percentage of citizens who declared that they did not participate in either of the two campaigns: 14 percent of those interviewed said they would not vote for either, and both Petro and Hernández will try to persuade them in less than three weeks left for the final vote.
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5% of the respondents said they would vote blank.
By region, Petro will win 49% compared to 39% of ‘Engineer’ in Bogota.. According to the survey by the National Counseling Centre, the nation’s capital will be the area with more votes already defined.
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In Antioquia and the coffee region, the only region where Fico Gutiérrez won last Sunday, 54 percent of those consulted said they would support Rodolfo Hernández. His intention to vote for Petro is 26%, less than half of his competitor. In this area, 14% of respondents said they would not vote for any of them.
In the Caribbean region, Petro reports a 48% vote rate compared to Hernández’s 33%. There, 13 out of 100 people don’t vote for any of them.
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As in the first round on May 29, Colombia’s middle east will vote for Hernández in a majority. In this region (not including Bogota), the former mayor of Bucaramanga received 51% of the vote, while Petro got 23%. 20 percent said they would not vote for any of them. In the south-central region, Hernández would reach 46% compared to 34% for the Petro.
And in the Pacific region, 57% will favor Gustavo Petro’s candidacy, rather than 23% of Hernández.. In this region, whose natural capital is Cali, 14 out of every 100 Colombians surveyed said they would not vote for any of them.
By gender, 42% of men and 41% of women surveyed said they would vote for Rodolfo Hernández. In Petro’s case, 43% of men and 36% of women who consult CNC would support him.
The survey also shows that Rodolfo has more support in the upper and lower strata: 52 percent and 40 percent, respectively, compared to 40 percent and 39 percent for Petro. Supported by i.
Petro has more support among voters aged 18 to 40, while Rodolfo is mostly supported by voters aged 40 and over.
PERFORMER OR LEGAL PERSON: Centro Nacional de Consultoría SA
Trustee Real OR Legal Entity: CM&
FINANCE SOURCE: CM&
THE UNIVERSE UNDER WORK: Men and women over the age of 18, residing in Colombian municipalities and wishing to vote in the second round of the presidential election
SAMPLING DESIGN: Probabilistic, with Simple Random Sampling layered in two stages with choice of respondents. Stratification separates the main cities from the rest of the municipalities in each region. Municipalities were selected in the first sampling stage, and households were selected from the sampling frame (telephone directory) in the second sampling stage. An adult person in the household was surveyed. The composition of the regions is as follows: (1) Antioquia + Coffee Region: Antioquia, Caldas, Quindío and Risaralda; (2) Bogota: Bogota DC; (3) Caribbean: Atlantic, Bolivar, Cesar, Córdoba, La Guajira, Magdalena, Sucre, San Andrés and Providencia; (4) Middle East: Boyacá, Cundinamarca, Norte de Santander, Santander, Arauca and Casanare; (5) Central South: Huila, Tolima, Meta, Caquetá, and Putumayo, and (6) Pacific: Cauca, Chocó, Nariño, and Valle del Cauca
SAMPLE SIZE: 1,200 cases in 43 Colombian municipalities
MARGIN OF ERROR AND CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 2.8% margin of error and 95% confidence
SUBJECTS MENTIONED: Intention to vote for Colombian presidential candidates
QUESTIONS ASKED: 2 questions
FIELD WORK PERIOD: 30 and 31 May 2022
NUMBER OF INTERVIEWERS AND SUPERVISION METHODS: 60 interviewees participated and the supervision method was 10% monitoring and 17% digital review.
COLLECTION TECHNIQUE: Telephone survey in households
Note: The National Advisory Center is registered in the National Electoral Council’s Register of Surveyors. This report meets the guidelines of the ISO 20252:2012 standard.
Source: Exame
