President Gustavo Petro suffered a serious setback on the quality of his administration. The latest Invamer Poll, released Wednesday, shows it dropping from 56 points to 46 points in its favor. This is equivalent to 10 points, a high figure for the recently launched August compared to the same metric.
Meanwhile, the disapproval rate increased from 20 percent to 40 percent. “This is a significant drop because time is so short. The sense of optimism that he managed to create with his arrival at Casa de Nariño was not maintained in the first hundred days of November,” the analyst said. Andres Segura.
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“Are things getting better or worse in Colombia in general?” Respondents to the question: 64% getting worse; 22% recover.
On this item, Colombians responded in August: 48% are getting worse; 33% are recovering. In other words, while more people today believe that things are going bad in the country, the part that thinks things are going well has decreased.
“What do you think is the main problem Colombia has right now?” The answers to the question were as follows:
41% Unemployment/Economy
18% Corruption
16% Public Order/Security
15% Others
According to the Invamer Survey, this means that for Colombians, the problem that keeps them up at night the most is the economic problem. It’s a concern that has risen from 38% to 41% just at this time when a tax reform the president strongly advocates is being debated in Congress.
In fact, the survey asked the question: “Do you think so? the price of living Is the situation in Colombia getting better or worse?
87% said it deteriorated, 7 percentage points more than the same firm’s measurement two months ago. This contrasts with the 6% who say they have recovered.
“Do you think that insecurity Is the situation in Colombia getting better or worse?” the citizens were asked.
83% said it got worse. This rate was 75% when it was taken over by Petro in August.
(Read: Petro: ‘US is destroying practically every economy in the world.’)
When asked: “Do you think economy Is the situation in Colombia getting better or worse?”, 80% said it had worsened; 12% said it had improved. In the previous measurement, 61% said it had worsened compared to 27% who believed it was getting better.
The figures are also positive in the environment, which is one of the issues that the head of state insists on the most:
“Do you think the situation in Colombia has improved or worsened?” He asked himself:
66% getting worse
24% are recovering
“Is corruption in Colombia getting better or worse?”
66% getting worse
19%, improvement
“Do you think the handling of Venezuelan immigrants in Colombia has improved or worsened?”
65% is getting worse
26%, recovery
“Do you think unemployment is getting better or worse in Colombia?”
62% getting worse
21% recovering
“Do you think the fight against poverty in Colombia is getting better or worse?”
59% getting worse
26%, recovery
“Do you think drug trafficking in Colombia is getting better or worse?”
58% is getting worse
16% are recovering.
But how to explain these numbers? Various analysts consulted by EL TIEMPO comment on this survey:
“Gustavo Petro is falling out of favor in terms of his public image. And it’s not falling lightly, it’s falling significantly by more than 12 points,” says opinion expert Carlos Arias.
“It’s falling because if you start reviewing every single one of the questions about the environment, the economy, employment, security and guerrilla warfare—perhaps health is the thing that falls the least—it turns out to be the honey moon, this Teflon in public, this one rising with the bubbling of the innovation of a government of change. the foam is starting to fall because his Government is starting to show uncertainties in all areas”.
According to him, “these are public doubts that are reflected in the ministers’ statements.”
“By this, I basically want to say that the mistakes made by the Ministers of Health, Mines and Energy and Labor directly influenced Gustavo Petro’s opinion, despite the opposition especially raised by Cecilia López and José Antonio Ocampo. López and Ocampo, Minister of Mines and Energy “For example, they had to try to reduce the mistakes of first-time ministers who were unaware of their portfolio. They are unaware of the management of such sensitive public affairs, which affects not only the public but also the markets,” says Arias.
“The social unrest consolidated in the country in 2022 and 2022 was a good ally of Gustavo Petro. The votes of the protesters and others identified with the popular discontent with democracy were decisive in smoothing the road to Casa de Nariño,” says expert Jairo Libreros.
“But these same misfits are already blaming President Petro, Libreros adds. They are still waiting for social reactions. They thought that the government of change would not be led by defeated political elites in March, May and June of this year. But the biggest alliance for change is with the defeated political parties. It is an alliance with the ordinary. And the result is clear. During President Petro’s 10-week tenure, it was rated with a 40% disapproval rate.”
Political analyst Pedro Viveros says: “President Petro is reaching the numbers he has won. That is, his real support continues with him, and the “bright” and temporary support of the days after his victory and the start of the government has returned to the other anti-Petrista half who never voted for him, but voted for him after they won. less than 100 days of waiting period from the government. This is the usual scenario for Gustavo Petro: managing those who have always supported him and will take the other 50 percent as sparring partners. ”
“Always after the elections, incumbent leaders have experienced a period of sophistication in the first readings in February that explains the big jump in optimism,” Andrés Segura repeats. “Still, this optimism did not last long, and the vast majority of questions about the government perceived a significant decline in favor of the government. There is still a positive balance, but it is clear that there is uncertainty on some issues. These discussions have not helped to keep the atmosphere positive,” he adds.
It is necessary to underline the continuing growth of concerns about the economic situation of the country, which has more than 20 advantages over other discussed topics. In the coming months, the way to respond to the demands and expectations regarding the economy will be at the center. and it seems that the recommendations so far by the Government on this issue have not been met satisfactorily by the citizens,” Segura states.
POLITICS
– SURVEY COMPANY: INVAMER SAS
– ORDERING REAL OR LEGAL PERSON: INVAMER SAS is for sale by subscription.
– FUNDING SOURCE: INVAMER SAS own resources
– OBJECTIVES: To measure the approval of the President and the eligibility of individuals and institutions in Colombia. Knows the public about current events. Evaluate people’s views on Colombia and President Gustavo Petro Urrego in general. Measuring the concept of people facing current Colombian problems. Observing the level of public acceptance of current laws, proposals or approvals. Make an overall assessment of the work of the mayor in the main cities of the country and how people perceive the city.
– UNIVERSE: Males of all socio-economic levels, 18 years of age and older, residing in Bogota (5,479.011), Medellín (1,813,155), Cali (1,374,126), Barranquilla (810,019) and Bucaramanga (390,351) and women, a total of 9,866.662 people according to the 2018 census.
– SAMPLE FRAME: cartography of cities to select people. Cartography coverage in 5 big cities is 95%. Number of blocks on the map: Bogotá 39,103, Medellín 13,329, Cali 13,707, Barranquilla 7,783 and Bucaramanga 4,716 for a total of 78,638.
– SAMPLE SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION: 1,200 personal questionnaires were distributed as follows: Bogotá 400 questionnaire, Medellín 200 questionnaire, Cali 200 questionnaire, Barranquilla 200 questionnaire and Bucaramanga 200 questionnaire. Weighting factors are applied to adjust the total sample to the actual size of each city’s universe.
– SAMPLING SYSTEM: A probabilistic sampling was done in stages, first a systematic random selection of households and then a simple random selection of a person aged 18 years or older.
– MARGIN OF ERROR: Margins of error within 95% confidence limits: +/- 2.83% for a total sample of 5 cities; +/- 4.90% for Bogota’s total sample; +/- 6.93% for the sums of Medellin, Cali, Barranquilla and Bucaramanga samples.
– DATA COLLECTION TECHNIQUE: Personal questionnaires (CAPI) in the households of the respondents.
– DATA COLLECTION DATE: 08 – 18 October 2022.
– NUMBER OF INTERVIEWERS: 36.
– VERIFICATION METHOD: 100% of the surveys conducted were reviewed and 15% audited.
– TOPICS MENTIONED: Public opinion about rulers, personalities, institutions and current events.
– PERSONS OR INSTITUTIONS FROM THE QUESTION: see the questionnaire.
– SPECIAL QUESTIONS ASKED: see the survey.
– WEIGHT FACTOR: It is the number that allows the sample data to be included in the population, that is, to expand the sample, by acting as a multiplier.
The weight factor was calculated by dividing the age range and socioeconomic level variables for the same variables by the percentage of the population by the percentage of the sample. The weighting factor indicates the number of sample units in which each respondent represents the population proportionally or representatively.
The universe used in this weighting factor is taken from the 2018 National Population and Housing Census results.
You can download the survey here:
Source: Exame
