In early June 2022, Microsoft banned users from the territory of the Russian Federation from downloading the latest versions of its Windows operating system, and after some time made an official statement that it would do everything to reduce its business in the Russian Federation. , “until now none of it will not stay”. Despite the fact that the digital giant has already been working in Russia through intermediary pads in recent years, for many companies and users such a statement was shocking. In this material, we will try to speculate on the topic of what the Russians should expect in the near future in the field of operating systems and in the IT sector.
The entire flow of reasoning is handled by a system administrator with 14 years of experience in large Russian companies. The author does not pretend to be true, but only expresses his assumptions. Keep that in mind!
home sector
Despite the catastrophe it seems at first glance, little will change for the average Russian Windows user. In the worst case, you will only lose the ability to automatically update the operating system from official Microsoft servers, the use of the cloud and the possibility of remote support. However, let’s be honest: what percentage of home computers do the Russians have a real Windows license on board and enjoy all the privileges in the conditions of such a simple availability of gray sites with ready-made ISO images of the operating system? Something tells me that despite the retailer’s best efforts, the percentage is not very high.
Even in complete isolation, users in Russia will continue to download and use Windows, play games, install updates manually or via VPN, and much, much more that Microsoft can’t do anything about. (Unless some hidden dirty trick has been built in, which will react to the system’s Russian language, but this is unlikely.) In general, nothing will change. It only remains to thank Microsoft for its enormous contribution to the future improvement of the computer literacy of Russians.
corporate sector
The use of Windows in large state corporations is in itself a very big risk, since the system is very famous and the most attacked in the world. However, the infrastructure of most of the Russian giants, thanks to the lobbying of interested parties, has been built for many years on the basis of Microsoft solutions. Already now in this sector a fierce chaos has begun to happen. System administrators, enikey specialists, engineers – everyone massively reports about the deactivation of updates, the stopping of cloud services, the refusal of remote support even with previously concluded and paid contracts. This state of affairs forces Russian companies, wherever possible, to urgently switch to domestic analogues of Linux-based software and systems: Astra Linux, Rosa Linux, Canculate Linux.
The solution itself is very sensible as the systems work quite well and you can be sure of the reliability of the data. It’s true that over the years a lot of self-written software has accumulated that just doesn’t work on Linux and can’t be quickly replaced. This state of affairs is forcing corporations to further expose their critical industry and continue to work on Windows without any protection. I don’t know how long this state of affairs will last, but I really hope that the current situation, and there are already many prerequisites for changes, will force the government to invest a lot of money in national developments. If it manages to fulfill at least 30% of the government’s promises, in five years it will not recognize the national IT sector. All corporations will be voluntarily and compulsorily transferred to home Linux. All these changes will require a whole army of IT specialists with a completely different logic. Yes, today’s IT in Russia will die, but a lot of money locked up inside the country and a link to the domestic market will allow you to get a real Russian IT spring, at least in the corporate sector.
Console/computer/game market
Do not call me a fan of the red movement, but there is something in the definition that consoles are the tool of the West to manipulate the inexperienced user. Who would have thought a couple of years ago that the eternal Xbox vs PlayStation showdown would end in such a landslide victory for PC. When choosing a console as the main gaming station, users should have considered the risks of a closed platform dependent on remote networking, which can turn into a pumpkin at any time. And the recent fad to get rid of physical media should only add to suspicion.
In the near future, the Russians expect a real revival of PC gaming and multiplayer online projects. Of course, such a huge increase, which was in the early 2000s, should not be expected, because no one has canceled the factor of mobile phones. However, locked money has to move, and the gaming industry is great at this. Expect a lot of new game studios and their projects in the Russian spirit.
Connection
Despite the fact that your obedient servant is a radio engineer by his early education, it is very difficult for him to think about the future of the network infrastructure in Russia. The positive picture is quite simple: if China doesn’t give up, we will continue to enjoy the benefits of 21st century communications: 5G, good rates, wide coverage area. But if everything goes dark, it will be fun and we will have to revive the almost forgotten branch of mass microelectronics. This is not bad, but it will take 3-5 years of hard work to get in and test everything and everyone. And this, for the first time, may result in an increase in communication fees for the population, the freezing of state programs to ensure communication with remote subjects of the Russian Federation, and the abolition of connection benefits. In short, I do not advise you to change your telecom provider and operator in the near future.
conclusions
Summarizing my thoughts, I, as the author, did not want to scare anyone or vice versa, it is not necessary to inspire that everything will be fine. I do not know the future, in any case, one thing is clear, that as before, in the near future it will definitely not be. Stocking up on popcorn, real fun awaits us in the next 5 years, where we ourselves will see everything.
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Source: IXBT
