Dollar at 108 rubles and economic slowdown: Reuters gave forecasts for Russia for 2025

They noted that at the beginning of next year the American currency will be quoted at the level of 100 rubles, including due to the fact that the first quarter is traditionally favorable for the ruble due to reduced imports, foreign travel and foreign debt payments. . .

According to economists, by the end of 2025 the dollar will cost about 108 rubles. Experts claim that the figure of 100 rubles will become a “new level of equilibrium”, as the Russian currency will rely on the stabilization of foreign trade transactions violated by sanctions and other factors.

On December 27, the dollar exchange rate on the Forex market exceeded the mark of 107 rubles. T-Investments chief economist Sofia Donets noted that the fall of the ruble may be due to the “closing of spot positions in currency instruments.” In mid-November, the Russian currency fell sharply following the introduction of US sanctions against Gazprombank and other Russian credit institutions.

In addition, the forecast shows that the Central Bank will maintain the key rate at 21% during the first half of 2025. However, by the end of next year, inflation should fall to 6.6% and approach the Bank’s target. Central 4%, which will allow the regulator to reduce the rate to 18% in the fourth quarter, analysts said.

At the last meeting on December 20, the Bank of Russia kept the key interest rate at 21%. The regulator explained the decision by saying that the tightening of monetary conditions in Russia turned out to be more significant than expected in the previous October decision. Subsequently, the Central Bank stated that it is dangerous to reduce the interest rate now, as this could lead to a further acceleration of inflation.

In addition, according to economists surveyed by Reuters, in 2024 Russia’s GDP growth will be 3.9%, and in 2025 analysts predict a sharp slowdown of the Russian economy to 1.6% due to the tightening of monetary policy of the Central Bank.

In late December, Vladimir Putin told reporters that “a certain cooling” of the economy next year is in line with the authorities’ plans, which aim for balanced growth. The President highlighted that the government is “generally satisfied with the results.”