Why would everyone in Japan have the same last name in 2531?

What would happen if, 500 years from now, all Spaniards had the surname Garcia? This may seem like an exaggeration, but this is exactly what will happen to the Sato surname in Japan if the current law is not changed. At least that’s the conclusion of a simulation conducted by researchers from Tohoku University.

In Japan, there is a law that states that when getting married, two people must have the same last name. To do this, they can choose whether they want to retain their masculine or feminine characteristics. Statistics show that 96% of couples They decided to keep the man’s last name.

Considering Sato is his personal Garcia, if this trend continues, by 2531 all Japanese will be able to have same last name. On the other hand, if the law were changed so that each member of a couple kept their surname, although the number of Sato would increase, it would not be as intense.

All Japanese with the same surname

This research is part of the project Think about the namewhich was carried out precisely in order to identify problems with the current law on Japanese surnames.

The Sato surname grew up in 1.0083% from 2022 to 2023. This may not seem like much, but for something like this it is a huge increase. By introducing this trend into modeling over many years, and also taking into account population growth trends, these scientists confirmed that all Japanese would have the same surname in 2531.

On the other hand, if the law were changed so that each member of a couple could have a different surname and 39.3% of those getting married decided to keep theirs, then only in the same year 7.96% Japanese Their name will be Sato.

Of course, we must keep in mind that the destination will ultimately be the same. 3310. That is, in that year all Japanese will have the same surname. If more than 39.3% of the population decided to keep their last name, the situation would drag on a little more.

The least of your problems

It may seem that the fate of all Japanese with the same surname is inevitable. But this is actually not the worst problem of this population. And another study called Projections for the future population of Japan, came to a rather alarming conclusion. The current population of Japan is approximately 125 million people. If current demographic trends continue, in 2120 it will be 41,229,000 inhabitants. Then, in 2531, it will drop to 281,866 people and by 3310 there will only be 22. There are only 22 Sato, who will find it difficult to overcome the population of their country.

Therefore, for this year everyone is divided surname This will be the least of your problems. It is worth taking steps to prevent this from happening, but not leaving aside the possibility of changing the law so that everyone can have the surname they want.