President in the coming days. Gustavo Petro On the legislative agenda in Congress, he will have to decide which path to take to overcome the crisis of governance that has hindered his progress, especially in social reforms; Evaluate whether it’s helpful to take the pulse of the opposition on the streets, and gauge the comfort of going with a cabinet of unconditional supporters.
(You can read: The story behind Gustavo Petro’s decision to extend his trip to France by one day)
Additionally, he will have to look for alternatives to stop the freefall in the polls to re-adjust to a view that seems to be turning his back on him.
All this in a month, because a legislature will start on July 20 with a Congress presumably chaired by an independent voice, and this assembly will definitely focus on regional elections on October 29, where 32 chambers will elect governors and deputies. Mayors, councilors and mayors of local government boards in 1,122 municipalities.
Unexpected obstacles emerged from the road map that no one had foreseen. The earthquake, which was the epicenter in the procedures used to recover $7,000 stolen from the apartment of former chief of staff Laura Sarabia, accused by the prosecution of fraud; audio recordings of Armando Benedetti, campaign manager and former ambassador to Venezuela; and the suicide of security chief Colonel Óscar Dávila triggered a series of aftershocks that did not allow him to escape.
Meanwhile, the opposition took to the streets, demonstrating that it had the strength to overcome even the marches it summoned. According to figures from the National Police, the March of the Majority managed to rally more than 90,000 people on the streets, while one of the unions, of which Petro was the protagonist, had 20,000 people nationwide.
The euphoria of the protests against Peter was felt in Congress, where workers’ reform, which he described as “very serious”, collapsed. This is a fact that coincides with the release of new polls that gave the President a negative rating of 60 percent.
But the head of state hid behind messages that tried to show that things weren’t all that bad, rather than accepting the facts. But where are your aides running public policy for the benefit of Colombians? On the contrary, the President tried to impose the story that a coup was fueled by this dynamic.
Along the way, he gains the solidarity of his loyalists, but what about the rest of the Colombians? Analyst Pedro Viveros says the head of state didn’t measure up to the fact that much of the country had divorced him politically, and not now, but since when he was mayor of Bogotá. Proof of this is that more than 10 million people left their homes and went to the polls to vote against Petro, not Rodolfo Hernández.
What is tangible outside of the political debate is that social reform proposals have lost weight in Congress since Petro ended the governing coalition.
(Also: ‘It was a victory’: the balance of the Historical Pact in its first year in Congress)
The handbrake was felt in the Legislature after the President’s decision to bury the governing coalition, said Gonzalo Araújo, a political scientist at the University of Javeriana, a MA in Latin American Studies from the University of Salamanca, and a member of the Orza analysis firm.
So far, he says, his strategy of negotiating individually with congressmen has yielded mixed and ineffective results. While some reforms have made progress, others, such as cannabis legalization for adults, labor reform, political reform, and humanization of prisons and subjugation laws, have faced obstacles that have led to their collapse.
The applicability of the health and pension reforms, which came to the fore in the first debate, in the plenary sessions is uncertain., given that his stride in the commissions has been adjusted and there is pressure from party leaders to influence the decisions of the tribunals. “The government continues to use traditional methods to reach political agreements, despite cabinet changes and further shutting down. It’s a symptom that’s usually seen in the third year of government and not initially seen,” says Araújo.
For this analyst, it is necessary to see the numbers that show the government’s strategy overall at fault: 12 of the 45 initiatives it has submitted have already collapsed; 18 are on the way and 15 are confirmed. That’s a 33 percent success rate. When comparing the same period to Juan Manuel Santos and Iván Duque, both had higher approval rates of 53 percent and 39 percent, respectively.
(You can read: What did Gustavo Petro’s government do in the first legislature?)
The main challenge now is that social reforms that address sensitive issues and seek structural changes require broad consensus. However, the government has difficulty achieving this due to its reluctance to surrender at some key points.
What is currently unknown is whether the retail route will be equally effective vis-à-vis the plenary reform process, in the midst of the electoral context, and with the apparent decline of Roy Barreras meaning the absence of Roy Barreras as the main addressee. Traditional sectors of the congress. Although the reforms succeeded in passing in the first debate, they did so in agony and by very close votes, amid scandals and the upsurge against Peter.
If the government and the Minister of Interior do not elect centrist deputies and boards of directors in commissions and general assemblies to build bridges with independent and opposition parties, it will be very difficult for them to gain majorities to approve flag projects. On the contrary, tensions between Congress and the President will continue to increase.
In its analysis of the legislative work, the Foundation for Peace and Reconciliation (Pares) says it will be more difficult if Petro insists on not making room for the Liberal Party, Conservative Party, ‘la U’ and Green Alliance. These four communities garner up to 90 votes representing 48.12 percent in the House and have 46 votes in the Senate, corresponding to 43.39 percent of the company’s representation. “If the Petro government does not give political vote to these parties, it will be without a government,” says Pares.
This center of thought illustrates the loneliness of the Government due to the absence of two key figures: Barreras and Alfonso Prada. “Luis Fernando Velasco seems to be the last icon Petro should negotiate in Congress. In his analysis, Pares said, what the President has shown is that he is gradually becoming more established, and this creates difficulties for him because at the time there were no skilled political operators on the left like Barreras or Prada.
“It is possible to change course,” says Senator Humberto de la Calle, who asked the president to better accept criticism. “The first step would be to change balconies. Not everyone who thinks differently is not an oligarch satrap.”
However, the President’s words tend to radicalize rather than understand, as is customary, the stubbornness of the facts. He labeled those who participated in the marches against him as “upper middle class”, “career”. And he blamed the media for the failure of the reforms.
On his last trip to Paris, Petro spoke to the AFP agency and insisted on his one-shot narrative. He was asked about the risk that the illegal wiretapping would interfere with his business.
Colombian political forces, he replied, face the dilemma of approaching the “common ground” that Latin America already knows, such as “overthrowing governments through coups, some parliamentarians” or approaching a “social agreement” based on “building new wealth”. .
“If the people turn to violence to overthrow their government, the people will respond”, but the opposition “will be able to build a great peaceful, modern and deeply democratic nation if the opposition accepts our invitation”.
Sources close to former President César Gaviria Trujillo believe President Petro will open the door for dialogue. In this community, they say, “The Liberal Party wants to contribute to building on what has been built and does not want to contribute to what is ultimately destroyed.”
Within liberalism, it is believed that changes should be made in health, retirement, labor, education, equity and equality, but “not to destroy what has been achieved by so much effort” if they “continue to rule in the same way without calling them all”. The powers will further isolate themselves and the division among Colombians will become sharper,” they say.
“Former President Gaviria and his party, the last great transformatives, brought together the other forces with which he was working, not just the 91st Constitution, to enact major changes, that alone would have been impossible. Today, the impossible happens without reaching an agreement and trying to make the—necessary—changes alone at the table,” said sources who heard Gaviria’s concerns, as President Petro had a legislative standoff, felt his pulse in the streets, and fell. in surveys. “It’s up to him to fix the course and not waste any more time,” they add.
Armando Neira
EL TIEMPO POLICY EDITOR
Source: Exame
I am Bret Jackson, a professional journalist and author for Gadget Onus, where I specialize in writing about the gaming industry. With over 6 years of experience in my field, I have built up an extensive portfolio that ranges from reviews to interviews with top figures within the industry. My work has been featured on various news sites, providing readers with insightful analysis regarding the current state of gaming culture.
