At the auction on May 24, the price of the ruble initially fell slightly, but then began to actively strengthen, after which the highs recorded since January were renewed. The dollar was trading at 89.5 rubles and the euro below 97 rubles.
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BCS World of Investments stock market expert Dmitry Babin believes that the tax period factor is responsible for the strengthening of the ruble.
“It is true that at the beginning of next week it will come to nothing due to the passing of the peak of tax payments by exporters. At the same time, their foreign exchange earnings may continue to decline due to the significant drop in oil prices over the last month and a half and problems with the supply of key raw materials to consumers due to sanctions and geopolitics,” he says. Dmitry Babin.
He also notes that the Russian debt market is showing high rates of downward movement. The RGBI government bond index has been falling for six consecutive sessions and has been updated for at least the last two years.
According to Babin, the pressure on OFZ quotes indicates that the Bank of Russia will not initiate a sustainable reduction in the interest rate in the near future. This carries high risks of inflation, even though it has now slowed noticeably.
“However, it is necessary for this trend to be consolidated at least in the short term,” added the expert.
As for the exchange rate for the weekend and Monday, the Bank of Russia set it at 89.7 rubles per dollar (-55 kopeks) and 97.1 rubles per euro (-78 kopeks).
We previously wrote that Freedom Finance Global analyst Natalya Milchakova predicted the exchange rate of the dollar and euro until the end of spring. She spoke of a range of 88 to 95 rubles per dollar and 92 to 102 rubles per euro.
Author:
Nikolai Tikhonov
Source: RB
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