On June 14, the ruble began to strengthen, but then lost ground, while managing to maintain a moderate daily gain against the yuan. In the midst of trading, the Russian currency returned to bullish momentum, but then sank again.
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As for the official exchange rate of the Central Bank, according to Friday’s results there is talk of a significant weakening of the ruble against the dollar. Now the value of the dollar is 89.07 rubles, although yesterday it was worth 88.21 rubles.
“It is true that, as a result, the dollar only returned to Friday’s closing level against the ruble, the last time it was traded on the Moscow Stock Exchange. At the same time, the yuan did the same yesterday and today it retreated from those values,” clarifies Dmitry Babin, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments in a comment for RB.RU.
According to the expert, the pressure on the ruble will intensify due to the drop in oil prices that began in April. The raw material factor affects the currency with a delay, with a delay of 2 to 3 months.
As for the ruble’s support, it is still helped by weak imports due to sanctions and geopolitics, although these same factors are also reducing exports in quantitative terms.
“An additional obstacle to a faster weakening of the ruble remains tough monetary conditions, as well as a large part of foreign exchange earnings that must be sold. In addition, next week the positive impact on the ruble will be reinforced by the tax period. Although the peak of tax payments falls on June 28, as it approaches, more and more exporters will sell foreign currency for this purpose,” adds the specialist.
He also added that the Russian debt market is trying to move towards recovery. The RGBI government bond index rose sharply on June 14, but quickly lost more than half of its daily gains.
We previously wrote that starting June 13, the Bank of Russia will set the official exchange rates of the dollar and euro based on banks’ reports on transactions in the over-the-counter foreign exchange market.
Author:
Nikolai Tikhonov
Source: RB
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