Experts predicted an increase in the Central Bank rate to 23% in December

Central Bank President Elvira Nabiullina did not rule out further tightening of monetary policy and, when asked about the limit of the rate increase, responded that “there is no such point, so it makes no sense to talk about its magnitude “.

The Central Bank’s forecast for the average reference rate by the end of the year is 21% to 21.3%, so at the next meeting the rate could increase to 23%, Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department of the Finam financial group, Vedomosti said. T-Investments chief economist Sofia Donets agreed that a rate of 23% at the end of 2024 seems realistic.

Belenkaya also suggests that in 2025 the real interest rate, taking into account inflation, may exceed 10%. For private companies, especially without government support, this means a long period of expensive loans, which could lead to business closure, the expert warned.

The Central Bank seeks to compensate for pro-inflationary factors, but raising the rate risks reducing private investment and affecting economic development. According to Belenkaya, such a policy could “increase the risks of recession or stagflation.”

Business representatives spoke to RB.RU about how the tariff increase will affect Russian companies. Among other things, they predicted an increase in prices on the markets, an increase in the cost of transportation of goods, leasing of assets and production equipment, as well as a decrease in the number of mergers and acquisitions.