RAS experts have discovered signs of a slowdown in the Russian economy

Economists raised their GDP growth forecast for the end of 2024 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%. In September, the Russian economy grew 2.6% compared to the same period last year and 0.7% compared to August. This is explained by an increase in the disposable income of the population and, as a result, an increase in consumer activity in the fall of 2024, according to the report.

Despite the improvement in dynamics, experts drew attention to negative factors that could slow down economic growth. One of them is inflation, which continues to be significantly higher than the Central Bank’s target (4%) and amounts to between 8% and 8.5% annually. Tightening monetary policy and rising costs for businesses due to inflation will severely hamper long-term economic development, according to the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Among the factors that could lead to a slowdown in the economy, experts also mentioned stagnation in the construction business caused by a drop in demand for housing, a decrease in production in the metallurgical industry, a decrease in the dynamics of investment, a deterioration in solvency. of companies, a decrease in mining production, a reduction in the loan portfolio of individuals and a drop in sales of cargo trucks.

“Intuitively, the economic slowdown has not yet manifested itself,” but the statistics for November and December should already reflect this dynamic, said the head of the financial research laboratory at the Economic Policy Institute. Gaidar Alexey Vedev. “An increase in the interest rate will undoubtedly have a depressive effect on the economy,” he added.

According to the forecast of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in the fourth quarter of 2024 GDP will grow by 3.4% compared to the same period last year, but already in the first quarter of 2025 the growth will slow down. up to 2.3%-2.8%. For comparison, GDP growth estimates in the first quarter of 2024 from Rosstat and the Central Bank were 5.4% and 4.6%, respectively.