Large companies named the main risks of 2025

According to the majority of respondents, at the end of 2025 the key interest rate, which is at a record level of 21% per year, will not fall below 18%. A third of respondents expect the figure to be between 18% and 20% by the end of next year. On average, across the entire sample, respondents predict a rate of 19% by the end of 2025.

70% of businessmen surveyed affirm that the high interest rate policy has an extremely negative impact on investment activity. In his opinion, rates should be lower, even to the detriment of the fight against inflation. 11% of respondents agree with the position of the Central Bank, which considers high credit costs to be an important method in the fight against inflation.

The top five risks for companies in 2025 also included a possible tightening of international payment conditions (this option was chosen by 61% of respondents), staff shortages and increased costs for the salary fund (57 %). an increase in the cost of logistics for import purchases (39%) and a decrease in the purchasing power of Russians (30%).

As part of the study, from October 23 to November 18, experts surveyed 60 companies belonging to large companies in various sectors: mining, metallurgy, energy, commerce, IT and telecommunications.

On October 25, the Central Bank raised the key rate by 200 bp, to 21% annually. This is a record figure since February 2022, when the regulator raised the rate to 20%. At the same time, the Central Bank allowed another rate increase at the next meeting, which will take place on December 20.

At the end of November, Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Russia’s next step could be to increase the interest rate to 25%. Bloomberg Economics Russia economist Alex Isakov said the regulator faced a dilemma: whether to raise interest rates further, even if it increases the risk of recession, or “simply accept higher inflationary pressures.” The expert believes that the first option is more likely.