The downward trend in demand for mortgages will continue in 2025: the final issuance will be about 4 trillion rubles and the market volume will decrease by 20% by 2024, said Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of VTB Georgy Gorshkov during the investment forum “Russia Vocation!” His words are quoted by Vedomosti.
Author:
https://rb.ru/author/mihail-zelenin/
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According to Gorshkov, in 2025 the mortgage market will not even reach the figures of 2020 and the height of the COVID-19 pandemic (then issues amounted to 4.4 trillion rubles). Banks will focus their attention not on expanding their customer base, but on supporting those who are already paying off high-interest loans, he emphasized. The current state-supported preferential lending programs, the conditions for which have been considerably tightened, will also not help the market.
Gorshkov explained this by the high rates of the Central Bank and the associated desire of Russians to postpone the purchase of housing or buy them in cash, without resorting to loans. Mortgages, according to the senior manager, will be granted only “in extreme cases and, mainly, for small amounts to be able to pay the debt as soon as possible.”
By the end of 2024, VTB expects mortgage loans in the amount of 5 trillion rubles to be issued, 35% less than in 2023. According to the bank, in 40% of cases Russians resorted to family mortgages; the lowest figures are expected from the TI mortgage program. From January to September 2024, banks issued 70% fewer prime mortgage loans than last year and the share of mortgages with state support, according to the United Credit Bureau, fell from 53% to 48%.
The abolition of preferential mortgages at 8% per year caused a drop in demand for housing loans by 53%, and the biggest hit was suffered by the demand for housing under construction, the executive director of KEY CAPITAL previously told Gazeta.ru , Olga Guseva. According to Frank RG’s estimates, Russians still prefer to take out mortgages in the secondary real estate market, waiting for a new increase in the official interest rate.
In a context of falling demand due to the high cost of loans in cities with more than one million inhabitants, prices for apartments in new buildings have already begun to fall. In a year and a half, the price reduction could be up to 15%, representatives of housing aggregators and real estate agents previously told Izvestia.
Author:
Mikhail Zelenin
Source: RB
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