Scientists from the State Business University have developed a new way to predict the future, different from classical approaches. According to SMU staff, traditional methods rely on forecasting, which means analyzing past experiences to predict the future. But this principle has limitations: It does not work if conditions change. Alexei Terentyev, the university’s lead researcher, likens this to looking in the rearview mirror while driving on the road: In a straight section, everything will be fine, but after a while the method will fail.
The new approach uses the theory of decision making under uncertainty. This method allows you to analyze external factors and choose actions, even if the situation is constantly changing. Scientists have created models that help objectively evaluate the impact of environmental factors, regardless of the current conditions in the system. These advances are already being used in software that automates the analysis and decision-making process.
As Terentyev explains, the user only needs to enter data into the program to analyze the information, calculate possible scenarios and propose the optimal solution. Such a system could be particularly useful for complex problems with multiple criteria and conflicting goals. The scientists are confident that their method will be a useful tool for management in unstable conditions.
Source: Ferra
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