Dollar: Why does it fall and how will business affect?

Why is the ruble growing?

Unpleasant signals. Mikhail Vasiliev chief analyst Mikhail Vasiliev said that the strengthening of Russian currency in recent weeks is associated with “premature hopes of the market to reduce geopolitical tension.” Until now, there is no sustainable and fundamental change in the situation in Russia, but “the fatigue of the investors of turbulence and geopolitical sanctions leads them to a positive interpretation of non -obvious and indirect signals,” said the expert.

In particular, Vasiliev points out, many investors expect softening of sanctions and the influx of foreign capital in the Russian market. On these expectations, Russian market participants can close long positions in the currency and open long positions in the ruble, and exporters can sell the currency because of fears that in the future it will become cheaper, the expert explained.

Market forces In turn, Maxim Petrov, deputy director of the Bank SDM of the Treasury, believes that the reduction of the dollar is associated with currency sales by exporters and regular sales of the Ministry of Finance. It is difficult to say what exactly caused the imbalance of demand and demand; Perhaps this is “with some delays” of export income for the period in which oil prices were approaching $ 80-82 per barrel, the expert suggested.

In addition, as Petrov says, the current growth of the ruble can be caused by a “too large exposure of individuals towards the weakening of the ruble” at the beginning of the year. “The balance has not yet been found, and the pendulum of the currency market took balance of the excessive weakening of the ruble at the end of 2024 towards the excessive strengthening of the ruble,” he explained.

What will happen to the dollar?

Not without hesitation. The “Svombank” believes that in the coming weeks or months, the ruble will continue to strengthen with the expectations of Vladimir Putin’s personal meeting and the president of the United States, Donald Trump. Russian currency fluctuations can remain wide depending on the news history. According to Vasiliev, in the coming weeks the ruble will negotiate in the region of 83–91 per dollar, 87–95 for the euro and 11.4–12.4 for Yuan.

“The additional dynamics of the ruble will depend largely on the results of the negotiations and the achievement of specific agreements. In case of progress in the negotiations of Russia and the United States regarding the conflict agreement, a greater strengthening of the ruble is possible, predicts the main analyst of the “Sovcombank”.

In addition, the ruble will support the daily sales of yuan of the reserves within the framework of budgetary operations and high interest rates of Rublo, said Vasiliev. He hopes that the Russian bank at a meeting on March 21 again will hold a key rate at the 21% annual level.

Fundamental problems. The head of the Monetary Policy Laboratory of Gaidar Yevgeny Goryunov states that it is unlikely that the strengthening of the ruble will last a lot. According to him, the growth of the Russian currency is influenced by possible future negotiations and the decallation of the conflict in Ukraine, as well as a high key rate. “However, in the long run, ruble exchange rate will weaken. All factors, including the main, the growth of the money supply, speak in favor of this, ”said Goryunov.

Do not expect a greater strengthening of the ruble in VTB. According to the bank’s investment strategist, Alexei Mikheev, the fundamental factors play against the Russian currency. For example, the expert says, inflation should depreciate the ruble continuously: “If now, in China, inflation is 0%and in Russia – 10%, and this situation will last a lot, then the ruble should depreciate the difference In inflation in 10% per year to Yuan.

Not only inflation. In addition, Mikheev resembles, in the last three years, Russia’s commercial surplus has decreased. In the second quarter of 2022, when there was a peak of raw materials, the commercial balance showed a surplus of $ 91.5 billion, in the fourth quarter of 2024, the surplus was reduced to $ 20.4 billion, and in January 2025 A minimum length: $ 4.5 billion. Russian energy sales markets.

In addition, Mikheev adds, it is possible to further reduce oil prices, since in 2025 and 2026 the surplus of the market is expected due to the demand for the growing production of world oil producers.

What does this mean for business?

Winners and losers. The “Sovcombank” recommended that the business be prepared for wide fluctuations in the course and, if necessary, the coverage currency risks. From a strong ruble, he explains that the main analyst of the bank, first, importers and citizens who can buy foreign goods are cheaper, but a course too strong is disadvantageous for the budget and exporters, so the authorities can Apply deterrence mechanisms.

Goryunov points out that strengthening the ruble for companies that compete with imports are quite bad news, since competition will get worse. “And for those who use imported components are good. On the other hand, a stronger ruble will reduce inflationary pressure, which will allow the Russian bank to go faster to reduce the rate, and this will be positive for the business, ”added the expert.

Production growth. The expert of the Federal Commerce Society (FOST) Sergey Petrenko said that the reduction of the dollar should positively affect the business of national manufacturers. They may produce goods from raw materials at reduced prices, which, in turn, can positively affect their national economy and the Russian electronic commerce segment, since the largest online platforms are concentrated in the support of Russian companies , the expert said.

At the same time, Petrenko is stipulated, it is important to understand that the budgets of the companies in 2025 have already been approved depending on the dollar at the time of their formation, that is, part of the acquisitions have already been agreed at old prices. . “Therefore, it is not worth waiting for a rapid reduction in the price of foreign raw materials, these processes will extend for at least six months,” he warned.

With the participation of Ekaterina Strukova