The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 7.5% per year for the fifth time in a row

Analysts also believed that the Central Bank would leave the key rate at the current level.

“Even a slight increase in the rate (by 50 bp) can significantly affect the demand for credit resources, especially from companies in sensitive sectors of the economy (heavy industry, housing construction, agriculture, etc.),” ​​the analyst predicted. debt. market “RSHB Asset Management” Pavel Paevsky.

The current reference rate of 7.5% has been maintained since September 2022, before which it was raised six times in a row.

• The Central Bank notes that the current rate of price growth has increased since the end of 2022, but “remains moderate.” The inflationary expectations of the population decreased.
• In the context of a gradual increase in inflationary pressure, the regulator said in the next meetings that it would evaluate the possibility of raising the rate to stabilize inflation close to 4% from 2024.
• According to the forecast of the Central Bank, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will amount to 4.5–6.5% in 2023 and return to 4% in 2024.
• In the baseline scenario, the regulator forecasts that the GDP growth rate in 2023 will be 0.5–2% AND 0.5–2.5% in 2024. The Central Bank explains that by the end of 2024 the Russian economy will reach the level of the end of 2021. In 2025, GDP is expected to grow at a rate 1.5–2.5%.

The next meeting of the Board of the Central Bank, where the issue of the level of the key rate will be considered, will be held on June 9.