Could monkeypox become a pandemic?

After more than two years of COVID-19, seeing how monkeypox spreads to more and more new countries, brings back very unpleasant memories. There are already talks about the possibility of its transformation into new pandemic that both warned us that he might be coming. But how likely is that?

The truth is that, fortunately, the likelihood of this happening is very small. True, it is scary to watch how it expands. In just a few weeks, the number of confirmed cases outside of Africa is approaching two hundred. 58 of them were found in Spain., which is also one of the most affected countries. But more and more people have monkeypox on their territory. First it was United Kingdomafter Spain and Portugal. And later it was the turn of the USA, Belgium, France, Italy, Sweden, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Scotland, Norway, Denmark, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Canada, Australia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

It’s not turkey slime, of course. But one need only look at the numbers from the first weeks of the outbreak that gave rise to the COVID-19 pandemic to see this. monkeypox is acting wrong. And it doesn’t for several reasons. Let’s see what they are.

Monkeypox is not a new disease

monkeypox was first discovered in 1958., in a laboratory monkey. After, The first human case was diagnosed in 1970.in a 9-year-old boy living in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Since then, cases have been identified in 11 African countries: Benin, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone and South Sudan.. Nigeria is one of the hardest hit countries with about 500 suspected and 200 confirmed cases since 2017. Cases of monkeypox outside of Africa are much rarer, but this is not the first time the virus has left the continent.

There have been several isolated outbreaks in countries such as the US or the UK. For example, in 2003 one occurred in a North American country with dozens of patients. This time it was export prairie dogs sold as pets the one that brought the pathogen from Africa. This time it might have been the movement of travelers. But be that as it may, it is clear that this is not an unknown disease.

We have vaccines and many people have already been vaccinated

specific vaccine against monkeypox approved in Europe. However, the smallpox vaccine is estimated to provide 85% protection.

This is great news as the vaccine has been widely introduced to the entire population. before 1980when smallpox was considered eradicated. For this reason, people over 42-45 are very well protected.

In addition, there are some vaccines approved for risk health or military and they could easily get emergency clearance for the rest of the population.

On the other hand, there is also antiviral drugs which have proven effective against monkeypox. It seems that all the cases identified so far are mild, but if a situation were to occur with a seriously ill person, there would be medicines that could be used to treat him.

Contagion is very difficult for a pandemic

Pandemics usually occur when highly contagious diseases and hard to find.

Monkeypox requires very close contact for infection to occur. This usually occurs through direct contact with discharge from skin lesions and other fluids sick. This also includes some respiratory secretions. However, not transmitted by aerosols like COVID-19, so mass infection without direct contact is unlikely.

On the other hand, people are usually contagious when they already have lesions on their body. These injuries are very easy to identify, so it would be easy to detect and isolate patients. At the beginning, when the outbreak was not yet known, some of them may have led more or less normal lives. But now that the extent of the problem is known, containment measures must be effective. This would make it harder for monkeypox to become a pandemic.

Monkeypox is a very stable virus.

viruses of the genus orthopoxviruseswhich include monkey pox and human pox, DNA viruses. In contrast, SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, is RNA viruses. Much more recent unstable. Usually mutate more and therefore it is much easier for them to avoid vaccinations or become more contagious.

With monkeypox, this would be a very rare scenario due to its great stability. There are more to see that the same vaccine worked for decades.

Even so, we need not fear a monkeypox pandemic. We must not make sweeping statements so it would also be wrong to say that it is impossible. However, there seems to be reason for calm. Of course, we must be vigilant and, in case of suspicious symptoms, isolate ourselves and call the hospital, where we will be told how to proceed.