According to the European Union Earth Observation Program satellites, Copernicus, the first days of June broke a rather alarming record. And the fact is that in a little more than a week he overcame 1.5ºC rise in global temperature which was installed in Paris Agreement which should never be exceeded.
It should be noted that this has happened before, but never in June. At least not since the first recordings started. In addition, it is important to emphasize that in Paris it was found that it would be alarming if this happened on average over the full period, for 20 or 30 years. Therefore, there is still a way back, but we should take this as a warning that we are not on the right track.
In fact, the devastating impact of climate change has been making itself felt for a long time. This is just a numerical example of a course we have taken and which we should try to stop. If not, then in a very short time the consequences will be catastrophic.
What was decided in the Paris Agreement?
In 2015 during world climate summit held in Paris, 196 countries signed an agreement in which they promised to avoid increase by 2ºC, if possible 1.5ºCglobal temperatures relative to pre-industrial levels.
We know that much of the increase in global temperatures is due to emissions from vehicles and industrial activities. For this reason, the period that has come between 1850 and 1900. It was from there that human activity began to contribute to the increase in global temperatures that we now want to stop.
According to experts’ calculations, an increase of 2ºC in relation to this period It would be very serious if it persisted over time.. For this reason, it was decided to put the limit there and, if possible, at 1.5ºC. To this end, the signatory countries committed to take the necessary measures to reduce emissions within their borders.
Some have been more successful than others, but it is clear that this is not being done on a global scale.
What does a 1.5ºC increase in global temperature mean?
When talking about a 1.5ºC increase, we must remember that we are talking about global temperatures. That is, It does not consist in going from 28 to 29.5ºC. at one point on the planet. These are fluctuations of a parameter called the temperature of radiative equilibrium. It is something much more uniform, stemming from the law of physics known as Stefan–Bosun’s Law. Accordingly, there is a mathematical relationship between temperature and the amount of energy emitted by radiation. Therefore, by measuring this, one can get something similar to the average global temperature of the planet.
This is the global temperature that has exceeded 1.5ºC in first 11 days of June, according to Copernicus. And this global temperature could continue to rise if we don’t do something to fix it.
It can be solved, but we must not waste time
Measurements made by ERA5, the fifth generation of atmospheric reanalysis that is part of Copernicus, confirm what was already intuitive. Actually in May World Meteorological Organization published a report that there is a possibility 66% that the global average annual temperature in 2023-2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.
We haven’t reached that yet, but we’ve already passed that global temperature limit at a time of year where we haven’t yet. On the other hand, the same report mentioned that 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, and indeed the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record. And 32% chance that the five-year average exceeds the 1.5 °C threshold.
From there, the end of the 20-year period is not so far away. For this reason, it is clear that the measures of the signatory countries Paris Agreement they are not enough. Or they don’t implement them well. We must analyze the action plan, because it is already clear that we do not have free time.
Source: Hiper Textual
