2023 could be the hottest year on record

This is a string of unfortunate records. Sea surface temperatures have not increased as much as in recent months. Antarctica has the lowest sea ice levels recorded. And last summer was the warmest on record. It is therefore not surprising that scientists are already warning that 2023 could be the hottest year on record.

It also happens that the overall temperature of the planet in September repeated the same anomalous trend. The average global temperature was reported to be 16.38°C, making last September the warmest September on record.

The European Union-funded climate change service Copernicus explained that September overall was 1.75°C warmer than the pre-industrial average. approximately this month. In the specific case of the European continent, the organization highlighted that in September this year, temperatures were 2.51°C higher than the 1991-2020 average for that time.

Last month, Copernicus warned that 2023 would be the world’s second warmest year. But September moved the line. Global temperatures between January and September 2023 are 0.52°C higher than the corresponding 1991–2020 average. And this is also already 0.05°C higher than the average for the nine months of 2016.It is currently the hottest calendar year on record.

Impact of El Niño in the hottest year on record

This year, from January to September, the average global temperature is 1.40C warmer than the average pre-industrial temperature, the benchmark scientists use to measure global warming. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments around the world pledged to take all necessary measures to ensure that global stable temperatures remain below 1.5°C.

In addition, experts say, the consequences of climate change will be much more serious. In May, the World Meteorological Organization predicted there was a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years would be the hottest on record. There is also a 66% chance of temporarily exceeding the annual average of 1.5°C for at least one of the next five years.

“Unprecedented temperatures for this time of year in September, following a record-breaking summer, broke records by an extraordinary amount,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “This extreme month has given 2023 the dubious honor of first place: It’s on track to become the warmest year ever,” – he remarked.

El Niño is expected to further increase global temperatures. The greatest effects of warming caused by this phenomenon, which began just a few months ago, usually occur in the second year after its development. 2016, the hottest year, also experienced the effects of El Niño.

An alarming trend

“The point of no return is approaching,” warned UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres last March. And scientists are no longer worried about the fact that the temperature record will be broken. Anxiety responds to the fact that these record conditions continue, setting a trend.

In just two months, a major global meeting to discuss the climate emergency will take place. The UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) will be held from November 30 to December 12 in Dubai.. Governments will discuss a strategy to finance new solutions that will stop emissions of polluting gases.

The richest countries – and the most polluting ones – committed in 2016 to mobilizing $100 billion a year under the Paris Agreement. The goal was to help countries with fewer resources adapt to climate change or reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

This year’s summit will try to find an alternative to address the failure of this initiative. Copernicus’ Berggess says this year’s reports make it clear there is no more time to waste: “Two months before COP28, the sense of urgency for ambitious climate action has never been more important.”