The alarm had been in effect for some time. Year after year, the scientific community confirms the progressive impact changing of the climate on the planet. But 2023 wasn’t just another year. A series of unfortunate records have been broken, a clear sign that the crisis has never been as serious as it is now.
“The era of global warming is over. “The era of global boiling has arrived” This was stated last July by Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General. One of his many calls to raise awareness and try to call the world’s governments to action.
And the prognosis is extremely disappointing. The UN says the chance of global temperatures staying below 1.5C is just 14% compared to pre-industrial levels. In fact, if things continue as they are, if governments do not realize the seriousness of the matter, The world is on track to rise in temperature by 2.5 to 2.9°C this century.
Climate change and the need for urgent action
This year ends with more than 160 world leaders gathering for KS28, the highest-level meeting on climate change. The meeting will last until December 12 in Dubai.
The order is quite clear: There needs to be a radical reduction in emissions of polluting gases that cause the greenhouse effect that warms the planet. To achieve the Paris Agreement’s 2°C temperature reduction target, the world needs to cut emissions by 28% by 2030.
“This record global warming should send shivers through world leaders and galvanize them into action,” Guterres said last week at the opening of COP28. “We are experiencing climate collapse in real time, and the consequences are devastating.” If political will is not enough, 2023 will be nothing more than a prelude to something much worse.
1. Record for the hottest year in history
July, the hottest month to date, gave us our first glimpse of how the balance sheet for the year will close. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said last week that 2023 will definitely be the hottest year on record.
The average global temperature in October was about 1.4°C higher than the 1850-1900 average. It is so high that the results of November and December practically cannot change the final balance. The highest record so far was 2016, when temperatures were 1.29°C above pre-industrial levels. This was followed by 2020 with 1.27°C warming.
Once again: the worst is yet to come. El Niño, which began in the northern hemisphere in the spring of 2023 and quickly gained strength in the summer, is likely to make the heat even worse in 2024. The WMO already said in May last year that there was a 66% chance of temporarily exceeding the annual average by 1.5°C in at least one of the next five years. Another study published in Nature Climate Change, says this could happen around 2029.
2. Record temperatures in the oceans and seas
Last August, scientists warned that the average surface temperature of the world’s oceans had reached the highest level in its history. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, about 20.96 °C. The previous record was recorded in 2016. There is still no complete data for the entire year. The highest annual return to date came in 2022.
The oceans play a key role in regulating the planet’s temperature. They absorb heat, detect weather conditions and absorb carbon dioxide. But the hotter they get, the less effective they are at this task.
High ocean temperatures can also increase the likelihood of hurricanes, cyclones and storms. A study published in October in the journal Scientific reportswarns that Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely to intensify rapidly. Another recent study found that more than 64% of climate change damage worldwide is due to hurricanes.
3. Unprecedented melting of ice due to climate change.
Sea ice extent in Antarctica has reached in February this is an absolute historical minimum since 1979. Satellite observations began. As summer approaches in the southern hemisphere, sea ice levels in Antarctica drop to their lowest levels. But when winter comes to this part of the planet, it usually returns to its dimension. This did not happen this year.
The level of melting in the region was so significant that in August it lacked a mass of ice equivalent to the size of the entire Argentina. In September, sea ice reached 16.96 million square kilometers, some 1.5 million square kilometers less than the 1991-2020 average, according to the WMO.
This is also one million square kilometers below the lowest record recorded in 1986. There are already studies that warn that parts of Antarctica are doomed to inevitable melting due to climate change.
In western North America and the European Alps, the glacier melt season was extreme. In Switzerland, glaciers have lost about 10% of their remaining volume over the past two years. Research published in the journal The science claims that half of the planet’s glaciers will melt by the end of this century if the temperature remains within 1.5°C.
4. Sea level rise
Globally, average sea level reached an all-time high in 2023.. This is one of the consequences of continued warming of the oceans and melting of glaciers and ice sheets caused by climate change. Over the past ten years (2013–2022), the rate of global mean sea level rise has more than doubled that observed in the first decade of the satellite era (1993–2002).
The rapid increase in 2023 is likely due to the onset of El Niño, the WMO explains. It is likely to continue to increase as the phenomenon progresses throughout the remainder of the year and into 2024.
Global sea levels have risen 20 centimeters since 1880, according to NASA. According to forecasts, by 2100 it will rise by another 30–120 centimeters.
5. Record of shame
Despite the seriousness of these reports, emissions of polluting gases continue to increase. Global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, caused mainly by the burning of fossil fuels, will reach record levels this year, according to a preliminary report. Global carbon budget published this week.
Countries are expected to release a total of 40.9 billion tons of CO₂ in 2023. That’s an increase of 1.1% over 2022, according to the report, prepared by scientists from more than 90 institutions.
“The consequences of climate change are evident all around us, but action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels remains painfully slow,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein from the Exeter Global Systems Institute and leader of the study. “Leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree on rapid cuts to fossil fuel emissions even to maintain the 2°C target.”
Source: Hiper Textual
