In short, this is the most powerful achievement of the climate summit. But this does not mean that it does not meet the minimum required to stop the crisis. The COP28 final agreement reflects countries’ intention to transition away from fossil fuels in a “fair, orderly and equitable manner”. However, it is vague in both language and purpose, and falls far short of reality.
The final agreement is the third version submitted in about two weeks. It is the result of a struggle between those who called for a “phase-out” of fossil fuels – something more than 100 countries advocated – and a call for a “reduction” in their use, which was ultimately approved. This is also a consequence of the leadership Sultan Al Jaber, chosen by Dubai as COP28 President, accused of using preparatory meetings for the summit to support his country’s oil and gas agreements.
“This is a real victory for those who are pragmatic, results-oriented and driven by science,” said Al Jaber, who is also a director of state oil company ADNOC. The COP28 president has already said that there is “no scientific evidence” to prove that a shift away from fossil fuels is necessary to limit global warming. His leadership at the meeting was supported by the presence of 2,400 delegates associated with the coal, oil and gas industries. There were more of them than government representatives.
While some celebrated, António Guterres, the United Nations Secretary-General, who has been demanding urgent action for years, spoke of “delays,” “indecisiveness” and “half-measures.” “To those who oppose a clear mandate to phase out fossil fuels… I want to tell you that this is inevitable, whether you like it or not.. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen too late,” Guterres said after the final agreement was announced.
What are the goals of the COP28 agreement?
This year is expected to end with record emissions: about 40.9 billion tons of CO₂, the main greenhouse gas pollutant. Most of these emissions are caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
This is the first time countries have agreed to commit to a transition away from fossil fuels. But that’s where the story ends. The document does not establish obligations for governments, clear restrictions or a calendar of actions.
Instead, it asks “parties to submit” a list of climate actions “in accordance with their national circumstances.” The COP28 agreement raises the question “triple renewable energy capacity” and “double average energy efficiency” annually by 2030. If this were achieved, the International Energy Agency estimates that oil demand could fall by 25% by the end of the decade.
But, again, the text remains a timid appeal. The draft, published on Saturday, considers an option to “phase out fossil fuels in accordance with the best scientific evidence.” Delegations from the United States, the European Union and several island countries supported the proposal, but risked that no agreement would be reached. Nearly 200 countries had to give the go-ahead – or at least not object – otherwise the summit would end without a joint statement.
Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) called on its partners oppose any condemnation of fossil fuels. So on Monday they switched from a “phase-out” to a version in which countries must “reduce their consumption and production of fossil fuels in a fair, orderly and equitable manner.” For this reason, the final declaration of the energy “transition” was celebrated by some activists, given that it could have been worse.
Admitting Failure
The group of small island states objected to some aspects of the text but agreed not to cancel the COP28 agreement. These countries are among the most dramatic faces of the climate crisis. Celebrating what happened would be like “celebrating the flowers that will be laid on our grave.”” said Brianna Fruan, a well-known Samoan activist, BBC.
Fruen explained that the agreement reached will not prevent global warming from exceeding the 1.5°C limit, the main goal of the Paris Agreement signed in 2015 by almost all countries. He stressed that the survival of the islands is under threat. This year 2023, Average global sea level reaches record high.
Regarding the fossil fuel transition process, the agreement only states that “action in this critical decade” must be accelerated. And he reiterates the commitment with the long-range goal mentioned earlier: net-zero emissions by 2050, “according to the science.”
This lackadaisical proposal does not live up to the murky balance contained in the same COP28 document. In the text, countries acknowledge that “deep, rapid and sustainable reductions” in gas emissions are necessary to prevent temperatures from rising sharply above 1.5°C. They mention something that the scientific community has already warned about ad nauseum: They need to be reduced by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels.
But what has been proposed so far is very far from this goal. According to the document, it is planned that emissions levels of polluting gases will decrease by only 5.3% in 2030. And this is assuming that the reduction plans presented by governments are fully implemented.
No clear assistance for the most vulnerable segments of the population
“It is clear that eight years after the Paris Agreement we are still a long way from limiting global warming to 1.5°C and averting the worst impacts of the climate crisis,” he said. Manuel Pulgar-Vidalwho was President of COP20 in Peru in 2014. He warned that the summit leaves “dangerous distractions.”
The summit also closes without explicit assistance to the poorest countries. At last year’s meeting it was decided to create a new “loss and damage” fund. It was expected that this would set clear rules for aid and commitment from the richest – and most polluting – countries. But COP28 again “called on” developed countries to contribute to the fund.
More than $400 million in aid has already been announced, to be administered by the World Bank. Almost negligible support. The UN estimates that poor countries will need up to $387 billion annually to adapt to climate change.
The United Nations states that There is only a 14% chance that we will be able to limit global warming to below 1.5°C. 2023 will be the hottest year on record. If things continue as they are, we will be on track for a temperature rise of 2.5 to 2.9°C this century.
“Give up fossil fuels. “Save our planet and our future” Read Licypriya Kangujam’s banner. The 12-year-old Indian activist took to the COP28 stage on Monday. Representatives of world governments, after surprise and obvious awkwardness, decided to applaud him. They spoke into the microphone for “his courage and enthusiasm” to the audience. Judging by the final agreement, it is almost a mockery of the lawsuit.
Source: Hiper Textual
