Jorge Rey, the young man from Cabanuel, is back: why is he sometimes right?

In 2021, a 14-year-old boy from Burgos became famous throughout Spain for predicting an unusual storm. Philomena using the method Cabanuelas. It is a very old technique, the use of which today is practically limited to shepherds and old people from small towns. Although in the past the population clung to them due to the lack of other ways to predict the weather, today atmospheric models have supplanted them. After all, the cabañuela has no scientific evidence. But a boy named Jorge Reywas right in his predictions, which is why in recent years he has become a real media personality, to whom the media turns every August to find out what the weather has in store for us next year.

They choose this month because the cabanuelists use it for their predictions. On this occasion, Jorge Rey predicted that winter will come early and that perhaps in October we will already have a sharp change in temperature. Considering the heat we are experiencing in mid-August, it is hard to imagine, but could it be? After all, it is true that the boy was right in some cases.

Perhaps if an 80-year-old shepherd had predicted Filomena through a cabañuel, he wouldn’t have received as much attention as Jorge Rey. But the fact that he was a young boy reviving the traditions of his ancestors is very attractive to the media. After all, that’s what it’s all about. An attractive story that makes good headlines. But to what extent can we give authority?

First of all, let’s remember what a cabañuela is.

Cabanuelas is a well-known traditional method of weather forecasting. in Spain and some Latin American countries. In Spain there are several areas with their own names. For example, in Extremadura they are known as vacations, and in the north of the country as temporas. But whatever the name, the technique is always the same.

Cabanuelists pay attention to more or less subtle changes in nature during the first 24 days of August. They pay attention, among other factors, to the Sun, the Moon, the moisture under the rocks or the behavior of animalsThey then extrapolate this data to each month of the next year to make a very long-term weather forecast.

Perhaps this is what attracted Jorge Rey to his predictions. meteorologists They can’t make long-term forecasts. Their methods have improved considerably in recent years, and they can make more accurate forecasts for the future, but in a week it is almost impossible. The Cabanuelists tell us in August everything that will happen in the next year. There is no denying that this is amazing, but there is not enough scientific evidence.

Why don’t they work?

As explained Hypertext in 2022 meteorologist Mar Gomezthe atmosphere of our planet is chaotic systemThis means that even the smallest change can cause major climate changes on different timescales and scales. It is therefore impossible to make predictions very far in advance.

Jorge Rey has admitted in some interviews that he sometimes also uses models because they can serve as support. He refers to numerical models of the atmospherein which the physical processes in the atmosphere are determined by mathematical equations. It is very accurate, but it cannot give us long-term data. The young man from Burgos explains that they can help him, but they are very wrong. Logically, if you try to predict what will happen in 6 months, you will be wrong, because it is impossible to know.

So why does Jorge Rey sometimes get things right?

Jorge Rey’s successes are a shining example confirmation bias. This phenomenon refers to the tendency to focus only on information that confirms our beliefs. For example, when we think about a person, the phone rings, and it’s them, we think that this is a sign of something important. But we may have thought about this person millions of times, even if they haven’t called us on the phone. This contradicts the hypothesis, so we don’t pay attention to it.

Jorge Rey was always making predictions because he was right (only partly, it must be said) about Filomena. The media hyped his successes, but They moved past their mistakesMoreover, in some cases they even disguised as successes what in fact did not exist.

For example, some media outlets are now claiming that a “young meteorologist” predicted that the summer of 2024 will be rainier than usual and this was the case in some places in Spain. The first mistake here is to call him a meteorologist, since the cabañuelas are far from meteorologists. Leaving this aside, Spain is a country with 17 communities and 2 autonomous citiesAny prediction could easily be correct in any of them or in any of the 52 provinces that comprise them.

However, according to the State Meteorological Agency’s July report, this year has been particularly dry, with rainfall equivalent to 61% of what is considered normal, based on average rainfall from 1991 to 2020. There is no report for August, as it is not yet complete. However, so far, with the exception of DANA, which left precipitation only in some places of the country and is not much different from other summer events, there has not been much rain either.

The Starling Case

One of the data points that has caught Jorge Rey’s attention the most this year is that starlings They were already seen in Madrid in August.

This may indicate climate change, but it is not necessarily the case here. It is true that starlings are migratory birds, moving from central and northern Europe to warmer places, such as Spain, in autumn and winter. This is because they are animals that are very vulnerable to temperature changes.

Now the fact that they arrived early indicates that the cold was able to reach these places earlier, but it does not necessarily mean that it will come here earlier. If they came here, it is because they are warmer here. In any case, even if that were the case, promotion of starling migration This is not something new and may be due to other reasons. In 2011 it happened in Lugo, in 2021 in La Rioja. Now in Madrid. But overall, seeing them in August in Spain is becoming more and more normal.

Therefore, to assure that winter will already be here in October on the basis of only starlings is too much. And also to look under the stones to see the humidity or any of the parameters that measure the cabanuela.

Jorge Rey doesn’t want to be fake

It is important to remember that it all started with a child who was shown the cabañuelas technique by a shepherd from a nearby town. He wanted to share it on social media and, without eating or drinking, he became famous.

It was the media that gave Jorge Rey wings. So much so that he himself believes that what he does is necessary and strives to improve his predictions as much as possible. But these are not good predictions, since they have no scientific evidence. He believes that this is so, and he was made to believe that he helps people with this, so he became sacrifice all of this. Let’s stop burdening the shoulders of a teenager responsibility to do something for which we already have much more effective measures. For the benefit of all, but above all for yours.