The Central Bank has identified three scenarios for the development of the Russian and world economies.

As for the risks to the Russian economy, the Central Bank highlighted the further deterioration of the geopolitical situation, including in the world economy as a whole.

Base scenario

By implementing this scenario, the Central Bank does not expect a significant change in geopolitical conditions. At the same time, the restrictions already introduced will remain in the specified period, they will continue to have an impact. The world economy will develop taking into account the trends that already exist today, and inflationary pressures will gradually decrease. In this case, by 2026, the Bank of Russia will return the key rate to the long-term neutral range, which is estimated at 5.5–6.5% per annum.

“Increasing fragmentation”

With this option, the principles of deglobalization of the economies of the different countries will grow. In particular, states will try to locate production in their territories. At the same time, Russia expects further international sanctions and restrictions. The terms of trade for the country will worsen.

“Risky”

This scenario assumes an increase in inflation and a tightening of the countries’ monetary policies. A rapid increase in interest rates will lead to a global financial crisis of the 2008 level. For the Russian economy, an important factor here will be the fall in oil prices. This scenario also supposes an increase in deglobalization processes.

The Central Bank also highlights another “more favorable scenario”. It can be implemented in case of a significant improvement in external conditions with an increase in the growth rate of labor productivity.

However, the regulator recommends starting from less positive scenarios.