Renaissance Bank analysts predicted the exchange rate at the beginning of 2024

A possible increase in the Central Bank’s official interest rate at the December 15 meeting could provide local support for the ruble. The long-term effect of the decision will manifest itself in a decrease in the volume of imports driven by the demand for credit in a context of restrictions on capital movements, says the expert.

According to Zhuravlev, it is also worth taking into account the dynamics of exports and the balance of payments as a whole. An increase in the foreign trade surplus will further support the ruble. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the bank expects an increase in the surplus compared to the previous quarter against the background of favorable market conditions: higher average prices for Brent oil and a reduction in the discount of the price of Ural oil in relation with Brent.

Another factor that will influence the ruble exchange rate in the first quarter of 2024 will be tax contributions to the budget. In January 2024, the law on a single tax for large companies (tax on extraordinary profits) will come into force, the average profit of which for 2021-2022 exceeds one billion rubles.

The tax rate on extraordinary profits will be 10% of the excess profits for this period over the 2018-2019 average. The deadline for tax payment is January 28, 2024. Since some companies have already paid a single tax during the grace period from October 1 to November 30, 2023 at a rate of 5%, the expert does not expects a significant impact of this tax on the ruble exchange rate, but allows for local strengthening during the period of single payments until the end of January.

The main tax payment peak for 2023 occurs at the end of March 2024; during this period a longer local positive effect on the ruble exchange rate is possible, he concluded.