During the spring of 2024, the dollar will be quoted between 88 and 95 rubles, and the euro – between 92 and 102 rubles. The current situation of the ruble can be described as a “presidential rally”, but not without some corrections, Natalya Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, told RB.RU.
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The ruble exchange rate depends on the dynamics of oil prices and the macroeconomic situation in Russia, including the state of the trade balance and state budget revenues, and spring 2024 will be no exception, according to Freedom Finance Global.
The price of Brent oil has been growing since the beginning of the year and remains well above $80 per barrel, and the Ural discount to Brent is not very high and does not exceed $15-20 per barrel. Russia has the opportunity to continue receiving an oil and gas windfall, and it does. These are favorable factors for the ruble that still do not allow it to fall,” Milchakova noted.
The main event for the ruble and in general for economic, business and political life in Russia will be the results of the presidential elections in Russia. The current situation of the ruble can be described as a “presidential rally”, but not without some corrections.
In his opinion, after the announcement of the results of the presidential elections in the Russian Federation, a transition period will begin that will last several months, associated with the planned resignation of the current government and the formation of a new government, which may periodically provoke strong fluctuations in ruble pairs throughout the spring.
Exchange rate in March
In the second half of March, the ruble will be influenced by the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Russia. Freedom Finance Global suggested that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged again and that the US regulator’s rhetoric may soften significantly, leading to a weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of the ruble.
Exchange rate in April
On March 22, the Bank of Russia will announce its decision on the key interest rate. With a high probability, the key interest rate will remain unchanged at 16%, which will not be at least a negative factor for the ruble. Until the end of April, the ruble will not be able to fall significantly due to the requirement that exporters compulsorily sell foreign currency earnings.
Exchange rate in May
The removal of this restriction for exporters could lead to a weakening of the ruble in May. New sanctions from the EU and the US remain risks for the Russian currency, which could theoretically include sanctions against the Moscow Stock Exchange, which would mean an actual ban for Russia from currency trading with the dollar and the euro, and could lead to a sharp collapse of the Russian currency. ruble, but the analyst believes that such an evolution will probably be very small throughout the year.
Author:
Karina Pardaeva
Source: RB
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