Small and medium-sized businesses expect the key rate to be 14% by summer 2024

Currently, the key rate remains at 16% annually. The next meeting of the Central Bank on the key interest rate will take place on April 26.

Blank’s study shows that 87% of business owners expect a rate reduction this year. Of them, 66% of those surveyed expect a decrease for the summer. 10% expect a drop in April or May.

A quarter (24%) believe the rate cut will come in the fall or later.

Of those expecting a decrease, 78% of respondents expect a corridor of minus 2 percentage points (pp), while 17% point to a realistic corridor of minus 1 pp. Only 5% suggest a drop of more than 2 percentage points.

The survey also showed that 39% of SMEs are already accustomed to high rates and are trying to focus on alternative deposits and instruments. 48% expect a reduction. Only 13% of respondents would be comfortable with an increase in the key rate.

Entrepreneurs indicate a range of 7 to 10% as their desired rate (45% chose it). According to businessmen, the high interest rate of the Central Bank creates difficulties in agreements with counterparties and makes it impossible to scale using borrowed funds.

Above all, high interest rates are not comfortable for entrepreneurs in the retail segment. Entrepreneurs in the IT and consulting sectors felt less difficulties with high fees.

• The survey was conducted among 2.5 thousand businessmen from all over Russia from different business sectors. 70% – individual entrepreneur, 30% – LLC with active business activity for at least 1 year. The research method is a quantitative telephone study that uses a set of previously prepared questions.
• Previously, a PRIM study by Sber and the Ministry of Economic Development based on the results of the fourth quarter of 2023 showed that more than 40% of entrepreneurs encountered difficulties due to the increase in the key rate.