The national currency fell sharply against the yuan and approached 11.8 rubles, but then recovered and settled at 11.45 rubles, according to Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, who spoke to RB.RU about the details.
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He noted that the tax period is ending, the peak of tax payments occurred on Friday, June 28. However, the weakening of the ruble should have already begun, but it has not happened yet. In his opinion, the ruble can be supported by the persistence of serious problems with imports. The same reasons limit exports in quantitative terms, leading to a reduction in the flow of foreign exchange to the country.
“The Central Bank’s foreign exchange supply in the second half of 2024 will decrease by almost 30%. As was the case before, the Bank of Russia will purchase foreign currency if only the Ministry of Finance’s preliminary demand for gold and foreign currency assets as part of the implementation of the budget rule in the next monthly period exceeds the amount by which the The Central Bank must sell foreign currency daily until the end of the year (8.4 billion rubles per day),” says the expert.
As a result, a decrease in the currency supply by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will return the ruble exchange rate to economically justified levels that are much lower, which are comfortable from the point of view of the sustainability of state budget revenues and exports.
We previously wrote that Freedom Finance Global analyst predicted exchange rates for July 2024.
Author:
Nikolai Tikhonov
Source: RB
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