The conservative version of the macroeconomic forecast prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development until 2027 includes several possible unfavorable factors, the combination of which could lead to hypothermia of the economy as early as 2025, RBC writes about this.
Author:
https://rb.ru/author/ntihonov/
Subscribe to RB.RU on Telegram
The ministry cited as negative factors the slowdown in the global economy, the increase in sanctions, the decrease in the number of people employed in the economy due to negative demographic trends, and the tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia.
The department says that the current overheating of the Russian economy may give way to hypothermia in 2025. Inflation may then be even lower than the target of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and amount to 3.7%.
“This will require a reaction from the Bank of Russia in the form of a sharp reduction in the key rate, which, taking into account pent-up demand, could lead to further price growth in 2026-2027 and launch a new cycle of tightening monetary conditions,” the Ministry of Economic Development says.
VTB Group chief economist Rodion Latypov says that a negative output gap can be considered hypothermia. We are talking about the deviation of aggregate demand from the potential level of supply, taking into account the resources available in the economy. A slowdown in the growth rate of corporate loans and a cooling in the labor market can only be a harbinger of hypothermia.
The Ministry of Economic Development develops basic and conservative economic scenarios on an ongoing basis. The latter contains all kinds of external and internal challenges.
The Bank of Russia reported at the end of August that inflation in 2025 could rise to 15% due to a significant reduction in supply. Therefore, the Central Bank intends to “significantly tighten” monetary policy (MCP) and is likely to raise the key rate to 22% per year.
Author:
Nikolai Tikhonov
Source: RB
I am a professional journalist and content creator with extensive experience writing for news websites. I currently work as an author at Gadget Onus, where I specialize in covering hot news topics. My written pieces have been published on some of the biggest media outlets around the world, including The Guardian and BBC News.
