The Ministry of Energy predicted a third salary increase in four years

This year, salaries will increase by 17.9% compared to 2023, to 88.2 thousand rubles, while in subsequent years the pace of their growth will slow down.

In 2025, the average salary will increase by 13.2% to 99.9 thousand rubles, in 2026 – by 10.2% to 110.1 thousand rubles, and in 2027 – by 8.3% to 119.2 thousand rubles.

The ministry’s forecasts seem quite optimistic, says Alexander Safonov, associate professor at the Financial University.

The main reason for its growth in the commercial sector could be services, in particular the remuneration of couriers of large marketplaces and other digital platforms, he believes. However, high interest rates and expensive loans have led to the fact that the resources for increasing salaries have run out and it is now not economically profitable.

Other sectors, especially those related to the military-industrial complex, are limited by the budget that finances state defence orders, Safonov stresses.

In his opinion, wage growth peaked in 2022-2023 and a significant slowdown can be expected in the future. If wage growth above inflation is still possible in 2025, then in the following years the rate will be comparable to price growth, the expert concludes.

• In July, the Central Bank predicted a 2.5-fold slowdown in the growth rate of Russians’ real wages next year. The reasons for the sharp rise in wages in the country include a severe shortage of staff. According to analysts, companies can no longer continue to increase payments at the same pace as loans have become more expensive. Their calculations were based on forecasts of nominal wages and average inflation.
• As RIA Novosti wrote with reference to Head Hunter data, in early August, data scientists received the most in the country – 240 thousand rubles, development team leaders – 236.6 thousand rubles, DevOps engineers – 234.1 thousand rubles, and welders – 215.7 thousand rubles.