The dollar exchange rate could exceed 100 rubles as early as 2025, according to economists surveyed by Vedomosti. Analysts have begun to update their macroeconomic forecasts to take into account the risks of prolonged high inflation and a likely increase in the key rate. They expect it in the range of 19-22% annually.
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According to Sovcombank forecasts, the average dollar exchange rate in 2025 will be 101 rubles, with a maximum value of 108 rubles in the fourth quarter. The chief analyst of the credit institution, Mikhail Vasiliev, explains this by changes in the preconditions for exports and imports. The management company of the Russian Agricultural Bank told the newspaper that they also expect the dollar exchange rate to exceed 100 rubles, that is, 103 rubles per dollar.
Alfa Capital Management Company believes that the dollar in 2025 will be in the range of 85 to 90 rubles. Renaissance Capital raised its forecast for the dollar from 96 rubles to 97.5 rubles at the end of next year. As the currency market continues to transform due to non-market factors, there remains a significant risk of wild exchange rate swings, economists have warned.
The official exchange rate of the dollar as of October 7, 2024, established by the Bank of Russia, is 94.87 rubles, the value of the euro is determined at 104.74 rubles.
The Ministry of Economic Development previously stated that the average annual dollar exchange rate at the end of 2024 is expected to be 91.2 rubles, in 2025 it will be 98.7 rubles, and in 2026 it will exceed 100 rubles. According to forecasts, the euro exchange rate in February 2026 will be 110 rubles, and at the end of 2027 it will be around 117.2 rubles.
Author:
Nikolai Tikhonov
Source: RB
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