Revenue of Russian airlines in 2024 may be a record, experts from the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) predict. RBC writes about this with reference to the organization’s report.
Author:
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Last year, airlines returned to their 2019 level of revenue, when it was 1.4 trillion rubles. In 2024, thanks to the increase in transport volumes and tariffs, revenues could reach 1.8 trillion rubles, ACRA said.
According to Alexander Gushchin, senior director of the agency’s corporate rating group, airline operating margins are also growing, reaching their highest level since 2011. The EBITDA margin is approaching 20%, while previously it was between 2 and 4 times smaller.
At the same time, passenger traffic has not yet reached the pre-Covid level of 2019, when more than 128 million people were transported. Last year this figure was 105 million passengers.
“The transportation of 115 to 120 million passengers per year is the absolute limit, taking into account the fleet we currently have. This is also demonstrated by the dynamics of seat occupancy, which is now at maximum levels,” Gushchin noted.
Domestic flights in Russia have stabilized at +10% in 2019 and international flights continue to grow, but their potential is limited by the lack of a fleet that is not subject to sanctions, according to ACRA analysts.
The agency proposed three scenarios for the transportation market in 2024-2025: inertial, negative and optimistic. In the first case, passenger traffic will remain at the current level. In a negative scenario, if geopolitical tensions, sanctions increase and revenues decrease, passenger traffic could fall to 100 million or less. In an optimistic scenario, with a relaxation of sanctions and an improvement in the macroeconomic situation, the passenger flow in 2025 could exceed 115 million.
Author:
Nikolai Tikhonov
Source: RB
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