The Bank of Russia mentioned the key factor in the weakening of the ruble

“The latest weakening of the exchange rate in recent months was associated (what we see in the figures) with a decrease in the positive current account balance, due to a slight decrease in exports and an increase in imports,” he said a representative. of the Central Bank (cited by Interfax).

The weakening of the Russian currency also partly led to the acceleration of inflation, Danilova added. According to her, other factors influenced this, including the situation on the labor market with “very low unemployment” and “rapid wage growth.”

According to the Central Bank, imports of goods to Russia in the second quarter of 2024 amounted to $69.9 billion, a decrease of 9.3% compared to $77.1 billion for the same period in 2023. , and exports of goods remained almost unchanged, amounting to 105.7 billion dollars (a decrease of 2.2%).

The trade balance (the difference between exports and imports, a component of the trade balance) gradually decreased, starting in the second quarter of 2022, when it stood at $95.1 billion. In April-June 2024, the figure was $35.8 billion.

By the end of this year, annual inflation is expected to be in the range of 8% to 8.5% (in July, the Central Bank predicted it would be 6.5% to 7%). In September, price growth reached 9.8% annualized from 7.5% in August.

To reduce annual inflation, at the end of October the Bank of Russia raised the key interest rate by 200 bp. p. – up to 21% annually. This is the third consecutive increase in 2024 and its highest value in history. The last high was in February 2022, when the rate rose to 20% annually.