AlfaStrakhovanie-Life senior analyst Alexander Sidorov predicted the exchange rate in Russia until the end of summer 2023. In the first half of the year, the ruble will strengthen against major currencies: by June, the dollar rate will be from 65 rubles, he told RB.RU.
The strengthening of the ruble will be affected by the expected rise in oil prices after the lifting of quarantine restrictions in China and the recovery of the Chinese economy, which accounts for 13% of global oil demand.
The second key factor is the reduction of the discount from the Urals to Brent, as expected by the Ministry of Energy. In addition, interventions by the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule will affect the currency: the sale of yuan and the purchase of rubles to make up for the loss of oil and gas revenue.
In addition, a possible increase in the rate of the Central Bank of Russia will play in favor of the strengthening of the ruble, if inflation in the country turns out to be higher than the forecasts of the regulator.
The main risks for this scenario will be a possible global recession, which could be caused by the tightening of the monetary policy of the world central banks during the last year, as well as a greater than expected effect of the embargo and the price ceiling for Petroleum products. russians.
In these cases, there will be a sharper drop in budget revenues from oil and gas and, as a result, the weakening of the ruble against major currencies.
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