predict earthquakes this is impossible. Sometimes they say that seismic swarm it is always a harbinger of a major shaking, but it may or may not occur. This is not a prediction. In fact, there are those who believe that the method that would allow earthquakes to be predicted would be almost the same as The holy grail of seismology. No one has reached it yet, but there is promising researchsuch as one recently published by Polish scientists that demonstrates the relationship between seismic activity and changes in cosmic radiation patterns.
This is something that has been intuitive for a long time, but it has not yet been shown whether there really is a correlation. These scientists have done this with a high probability of success. In fact, according to their findings, earthquakes could be predicted 15 days in advance. But there is a problem, since at the moment they could not determine origin of earthquakes.
That is, it can be found that big global earthquakebut it’s impossible to know where. At least for now. Perhaps, by polishing the method, they will achieve this. At the moment, this is one of the moments when scientists are closest to predicting earthquakes. Thus, they will have to continue their investigation.
What is cosmic radiation?
Cosmic radiation is subatomic particles that fly to Earth from space. at high speed. This speed gives them a lot of energy. But they are also electrically charged. And that’s why they get distracted by earth’s magnetic field. The latter is important for understanding how they can help in earthquake prediction.
Its origin is not entirely clear. Solar flares are known to emit cosmic rays, but they occur much more frequently than such flares. Therefore, there must be other phenomena, such as black holeswho are also involved.
How do they help us predict earthquakes?
It is known that the currents generated in earth’s core are responsible for creating this a magnetic field we have already seen that it deflects cosmic radiation. On the other hand, earthquakes can act on these underground currents by interfering with the magnetic field and in turn how cosmic rays are deflected. Thus, if it were possible to find a correlation between the shocks and deflections of these beams, we would be faced with the method predict earthquakes.
To test if it’s possible, he was born PROBABILITY (Observatory of extremely distributed cosmic rays), project Institute of Nuclear Physics Polish Academy of Sciences (FIP PAN). It has several observatoriesalthough for this study they relied on data from two, one in each hemisphere: the Neutron Monitor Database Project, collected over the past 50 years, and the Pierre Auger Observatory, collected since 2005. As for global seismic information, they got it from US Geological Survey.
Thus, they saw that there is indeed a correlation between the sum of the magnitudes of all earthquakes more than 4 points and intensity secondary cosmic radiation. These radiations arise when rays from space interact with the earth’s atmosphere.
Changes can be detected up to 15 days before seismic peaks. Therefore, it can help predict earthquakes. The problem is that, as we have seen, the sum of all the shocks on the planet was made. At the moment, it is impossible to know where the ones that lead to these peaks will occur.
Another interesting fact that was discovered during this study is that changes in the intensity of cosmic radiation occur in cycles of 10 or 11 years. Interestingly, it coincides with the duration of solar cycles. But the peaks don’t occur at the same time, so the periodicity could be from somewhere else. Knowing where it came from can help predict earthquakes in a different, more accurate way. There is work ahead, but perhaps these scientists have taken another step towards finding that long-awaited Holy Grail.
Source: Hiper Textual