residents of Madrid They were very frightened yesterday, September 3, when their mobile phones roared in unison with Civil protection signaling that he advised them not to leave the house except for reasons of force majeure. Cause, Community’s classification flood alert level 1. Both the message and the chosen method of notification frightened a large part of the inhabitants of Madrid, while others began to complain that it was an excessive and wrong measure, since it hardly rained at the appointed hours. But there are several factors to consider here. To begin with, it was raining heavily in other parts of the Community at the time. And besides, Dana unloaded in the capital at night, not during the day. Hence AEMET weather forecast They didn’t fail, they were just somewhat inaccurate.
This is not the first time this has happened, both in Spain and in other countries. Weather forecasts are getting more and more accurate, but sometimes they fail. They may misunderstand or miss the intensity, the place, or the time. Sometimes you think about the incompetence of the professionals behind them, but nothing is further from reality.
Meteorological forecasts such as AEMET forecasts, they are complex. Many factors influence them. But, unfortunately, they are very unstable, as they change quickly and easily. It would make what was an accurate prediction hours before it suddenly missed. For this reason, margins of error are usually taken into account and, above all, a choice is made in favor of prevention rather than treatment. Madrid civil protection signaling It was aimed at the latter. Prevention, even if it sometimes includes intimidation, can save many lives. The horror of an apocalyptic signal on a mobile phone will always be better than the horror of being trapped in a car in the middle of a flood.
Why don’t weather forecasts like AEMET forecasts work?
Weather forecasts are obtained from a combination of a lot of data obtained by a variety of methods. From land and sea stationsbefore radars and satellitesPassing weather balloons or aircraft in flightthere are many mechanisms needed to create a much more realistic picture of what is happening in the atmosphere.
This allows you to create so-called numerical models of the atmosphere. This is what meteorologists use to make forecasts that are becoming more and more accurate. more precisely. In fact, according to reports from the World Meteorological Organization, a five-day forecast is as reliable today as a three-day forecast was 20 years ago. But in reality they 24-48 hours that we can take into account more. It is with their help that alerts are given, such as the Civil Defense alert these days. But sometimes even they fail.
Two main problems
This is due to several reasons. On the one side, UK Met Office In an informative article on his website, he explained that in some cases this is due to the computer models used. This is automated data taken directly from combination of weather forecast modelsin which no human experts interfere. As a rule, these are very efficient models that significantly speed up the work and make it easier to trigger alarms if necessary. However, when it comes to extreme circumstances, these models can experience some difficulties and errors.
On the other hand, we must keep in mind that rapidly changing factors are involved in weather forecasts. Although we give out the weather that will be in a particular place, we need global data. Logically, this makes it easier to make mistakes. And that’s what even relief a particular location can affect the shape of the clouds and at the same time change the weather at a distance of many kilometers. For example, a mountain in Andalusia can affect the weather in Madrid. All this leads to the so-called “chaotic nature of the atmosphere”, in which a very small error can be greatly increased for future simulations.
What happened to the civil protection alert in Madrid?
It should be noted that the Civil Defense alarm spoke of “extreme risk storms in Madrid. This is not only about the city of Madrid, but also about all the municipalities that make up the autonomous community. There was a lot of talk about AEMET’s mistakes, because Dana he did not unleash his full force on the capital. But it happened at other times as well.
In any case, it’s important to note that DANA’s behavior changed at the last minute. Arriving in Madrid, he turned west, unloading through this part of the Community and through Castilla la Mancha heavy rainfall to be expected in Retiro. This could be due to any of the tiny things we’ve observed that affect the atmosphere chaotically.
Despite this, during the night in Madrid there were floods in the metro, traffic jams and many accidents. The weather forecasts were not accurate, but were very close to reality. Many of those who received the Civil Protection alert may have chosen not to use the subway at night or to avoid certain places that ended up being flooded. Thus, it was not a bad measure. And, of course, AEMET does not deserve the criticism that comes to it. We have one of the best weather forecasting institutions in the world and they have no right to receive this kind of criticism, especially from ignorance.
Source: Hiper Textual
