A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of experts convened by the United Nations, said in March this year that the Earth will reach a critical warming limit within the next decade. This is the point of no return, marked by a 1.5°C rise in global temperatures compared to pre-industrial times. However, A new study says this could happen sooner: in 2029.
This would mark a partial failure of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, in which nearly every country in the world pledged to take action to curb global warming. Experts warn that when the time comes, the effects of climate change, which are already affecting populations around the world, will be much more difficult to control.
The new study was published this week in the journal Nature Climate change. The responsible group of scientists explains that the new calculations are related to the record of carbon dioxide emissions over the past three years. In 2022, for example, approx. 36.8 billion tons of polluting gasesthis is the highest figure to date.
The assessment by the IPCC, the UN’s main body on climate change, is based on data collected up to 2020.
Probability of exceeding Earth’s warming limit
The study is based on what the scientific community calls the “residual carbon budget.” In general terms, this is the amount of polluting gases that human activity could still cause without affecting the current 50% chance of limiting Earth’s warming to 1.5°C. Although this may not seem like much, this 50% is the best possible forecast at the moment.
Emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases raise global temperatures as they trap Earth’s radiation, creating the greenhouse effect. The last 10 years have already averaged 1.14°C warmer than pre-industrial times. Last year it was 1.26°C warmer. And this year this figure will most likely be exceeded. Scientists have already warned that 2023 could be the hottest year on record.
A new study says a “carbon budget” that persists after reconsidering the role of factors other than carbon that’s only 250 billion metric tons. The world burns nearly 40 billion metric tons per year. If things continue like this, In just over five years we will exceed the proposed limit.
To avoid a key limit to Earth’s warming, industrialized countries need to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030. Then reach net zero by the early 2050s. New calculations show that the net-zero emissions target must be achieved by 2034 to succeed.
“There are no publicly available sociotechnical scenarios in the scientific literature to show that this is actually possible,” Joeri Rogel, a professor at Imperial College London, told the BBC. “Or even describe how it’s possible.”
Next goal: 2°C warming.
In other words, limiting warming to below 1.5°C is increasingly unrealistic. But the world should not see this as the last chance to curb global warming, the study’s researchers say.
The Paris Agreement has a second goal: to keep warming below 2°C. In this case, the “carbon budget” is 1 trillion 220 billion metric tons. This means it will take about 30 years before it crosses the new threshold.
“We don’t want this to be interpreted as six years to save the planet,” said study co-author Christopher Smith, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds. AP. “If we can limit warming to 1.6 degrees, 1.65 degrees or 1.7 degrees, that’s much better than 2 degrees. We still have to fight for every tenth of a degree.”.
Sea surface temperatures have not increased as much as in recent months. Antarctica has the lowest sea ice levels recorded. The same thing happens with glaciers in different parts of the world. And phenomena such as hurricanes have now become more powerful and destructive.
World leaders will meet at the UN climate change conference (COP28) later this month. It will take place in Dubai from November 30 to December 12. Governments are called upon to agree on a decisive strategy that will enable new solutions to be implemented that will stop emissions of polluting gases. And thereby correct the current failure.
Source: Hiper Textual
