The Earth has never warmed as much as it will in 2023. Last year’s records were so high that as early as October, scientists said the year would end as the hottest on record. By then, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had estimated that the planet’s average temperature this was already almost 1.40 °C higher than in the pre-industrial era. But as soon as we were told about this record, we were already warned about the next forecast: 2024 could be even worse.
This year could be the first time the global average temperature momentarily exceeds 1.5°C. The UK Met Office estimates that the average global temperature in 2024 will be from 1.34 °C to 1.58 °C. The forecast is in line with the current global warming trend of 0.2°C per decade.
The 1.5°C limit is the fundamental basis of the 2015 Paris Agreement, in which almost every country in the world pledged to take action to limit the level of global warming. Once that threshold is crossed, experts warn that the effects of climate change, which are already affecting populations around the world, will be much more difficult to control. If 2024 does become the hottest year on record, the forecasts are not at all favorable.
Above the global average temperature in one year doesn’t necessarily mean the planet will cross that limit in the long term, but it is a clear sign that we’re on the right track. A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the most important UN body on the issue, last year said the Earth would reach this critical threshold within the next decade. However, more recent studies suggest that this could happen around 2029.
El Niño could make 2024 the hottest year on record
Two key factors are shaping the forecast for 2024 as the hottest year on record. On the one hand, emissions of polluting gases continue to grow. The preliminary report of the Global Carbon Budget estimates that 2023 will end about 40.9 billion tons of CO₂ emissions. Compared to 2022, this will be an increase of 1.1%.
And there is El Niño, which has not yet peaked. It is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with warming ocean surfaces in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Only now it is being exacerbated by the human-caused climate crisis.
El Niño typically lasts between nine and twelve months. The last time this happened was between 2015 and 2016. And, as a result, 2016 became the hottest year in history. The current episode began around June last year and is expected to last until at least April, according to the WMO.
“Extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, forest fires, heavy rainfall and flooding will increase in some regions,” warned Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General. “This will have important consequences,” he said in a report published in November.
Uptrend
Scientists warned last August that Average ocean surface temperature reaches its highest level because there are records. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, about 20.96 °C. The previous record was also recorded in 2016. There’s no complete data for all of 2023 yet, but it could take several months of this year for all that heat to be released.
“This sets the stage for warmer-than-normal temperatures on Earth,” possibly peaking around February, explained Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. “I believe this will be the case for at least the first six months of 2024,” he said. Trenberth said Washington Post.
A trend is already being established. The last nine years, from 2015 to 2023, were the warmest on record, the WMO says. The UN says the chance of global temperatures staying below 1.5C is just 14% compared to pre-industrial levels.
If things continue as they are, the world is heading towards an increase 2.5 °C and 2.9 °C in the same century. So, it seems certain that 2024 will continue the trend of 2023. So it wouldn’t be surprising if it broke the record and became the hottest year on record.
Source: Hiper Textual
