In this year 2024 Men’s European Football Cup He gives us shows that will go down in history. One of them is, without a doubt, penalty with the help of match between Slovenia and Portugal. After the match ended and extra time remained goalless, the quarter-final had to be decided at a distance of 11 meters. For this, the Slovenian team had an experienced goalkeeper, Jan Oblakand Portugal preferred the young Diogo Costa24. Despite his young age, he is known as a good penalty saver. At least during matches, as this was their second final round. But he left no doubt that avoiding set-pieces is his specialty, as he did not miss a single one of the Slovenian players’ shots against Portugal. It is clear that Costa is very good at saving penalties. But what does it take?
Science has been trying to study it for many years. There are those who say that fines are matter of chancemuch more than just good football. To some extent, they are. It is true that chance plays a role. However, it is not the only factor that influences whether the ball ends up in or out of the goal. There are good penalty takers and good goalkeepers. It is clear that there are players who do it better than others, and it is not a question of luck, but, above all, psychology.
Psychology and physics are two important factors when it comes to stopping or taking a penalty. Diogo Costa may have studied this very well, and that is why he is so good. But let’s look at what he and other footballers should consider.
Time is money for goalkeepers
In 2018, a group of scientists from the Vrije University of Amsterdam conducted a study aimed at analyzing statistically and psychologically That Goalkeeper Strategies when fines are threatened.
They are always thrown in distance 11 meters. Although it depends on the force with which the ball is thrown, on average it takes 0.5 seconds in reaching the target from the moment of the kick. This is the time when the goalkeeper must decide what to do. However, it usually takes several 0.6 seconds and 1 full second if you need to jump into the corner of the goal. For this reason, the decision must be made before the shot is taken. It is often said that chance comes into play here. However, it has been noted that some goalkeepers are very good at deciphering the expressions on the faces of the throwers during the run-up and at the very moment the foot hits the ball.
There are even goalkeepers who know from experience the preferences of each player. In this study, one of its authors mentions Jens Lehmanna German goalkeeper renowned for his ability to save penalties. Some sports analysts have found that over time he has been able to work out which direction players on other teams are most likely to shoot, as well as the time he should wait to intercept each one.
Obviously, this cannot be the case with Diogo Costa, as he is a very young player who has not yet had time to develop. study your opponents’ techniques. Nothing happens, as there are many other factors that influence fines.
The Psychology of a Good Penalty Goalkeeper
A 2007 study of 286 penalties found that if goalkeepers were left in center of the gate They will save many more fines. However, in 93.7% of cases they prefer to jump to one side or the other.
After interviewing several veteran goalkeepers, the researchers found that when they were awarded a penalty, I feel worse after inactivity. So if they stayed in the center of the goal and couldn’t stop the ball, it felt worse than if they hadn’t stopped it but at least jumped to the side to try.
Who throws first?
At the start of a penalty shootout, the referee toss a coin to see who shoots first. The winner of the heads or tails game decides whether his team will start the game or cede the opportunity to his opponents. Statistically, it is best to shoot first. This is also a matter of psychology, since if the first shooter scores a goal, the second will experience additional pressure to shoot.
In fact, there are several studies on this subject, and they all indicate that the team that shoots first is more likely to win the shootout. This figure varies slightly from one study to another, but about 60% chance of success for the first team.
And the thing is that pressure This is the key moment in penalty kicks. It is estimated that 85% of penalties taken in 90 minutes of a match end in goals. On the other hand, in a penalty shootout, this figure decreases. up to 76%. It can be even lower – 60% if it is a decisive launch. For this reason, both goalkeepers and strikers who have a greater ability to control stress achieve the best results. This may be what happened to Diogo Costa.
Tricks to Win a Penalty Shootout
Based on research, science has identified some tricks that give penalty takers a better chance of success. Of course, stress management is important for both them and goalkeepers. But that’s not all.
Some studies show that players who turn their backs to the goalkeeper when retreating to start a race high probability of missing a penalty. This action seems to de-center the pitcher himself and cause him to lose concentration on the pitch. Of course, you have to be careful when starting with them. don’t look the goalie in the eye for a long time. There are studies that show that in addition to nervousness, this gives the goalie more signals to guess the thrower’s action and jump in the right place.
On the other hand, it is not recommended to take the throw immediately after the referee’s whistle. Research British Psychological Society showed that players who take penalties less than 200 milliseconds after the whistle only score goals 57% of casesOn the other hand, those who wait at least one second make up 80%.
This can be seen even when differentiating by teams. For example, English players They are among the fastest to take penalties, and for this reason they seem to have a higher chance of missing them. Spaniards Something similar happened to them. However, shortly before that glorious era when our team won the World Cup and two European Championships, this trend changed. This does not seem like a coincidence.
Diogo Costa’s penalty statistics have only just begun
Before this latest match, Diogo Costa had only taken one penalty shootout, namely in the 2023-24 Champions League round of 16 against Porto. On that occasion, he failed to stop a single goal. However, in 90 minutes of league play, he stopped 41.67% of fines that was thrown to him. Let’s remember that players usually make 85% of such throws correctly. A goalie who is more than 40% correct is a very good goalie.
Portugal are lucky to have Diogo Costa. We’ll see what happens in the quarter-finals, but the goalkeeper certainly gives something to talk about.
Source: Hiper Textual
