CopernicusThe European Union’s Earth Observing System has just detected the end of a cycle increase in temperature which lasted for 13 months: from June 2023 to June 2024 inclusive. To us, this may seem like great news. Does it mean the end of the stifling heat we’ve been enduring all summer? Will heat waves end before next year? I wish the answers were what we’d like them to be, but the truth is, it’s not that simple.
It is true that the temperature increase that has been going on for a year has stopped. But the current temperature is still much higher than in recent years. This makes us ask ourselves a new question: what happened next? Why did this growth suddenly stop?
As explained in the article for Talk Professor at the University of Reading Christopher Merchant There are several factors at play here, but the El Niño phenomenon has played a major role in changing this cycle. Since this is a cyclical phenomenon, let’s not believe that it’s over.
Copernicus figures
According to Copernicus, the average air and water surface temperature was 0.25°C higher than in previous years from June 2023 to June 2024. However, July was slightly lower than the same month last year.
This means that the cycle of rising temperatures has ended. But let’s not ring any alarm bells. The average temperature in July was 0.04 ºC below July 2023 levels. This is a minimal difference. When you consider that July 2023 was 0.28 ºC warmer than the previous high temperature record set in July 2019, it becomes clear that We continue to overcome unpleasant barriers.
Very alarming rise in temperature
Typically, numbers are used to analyze temperature increases. pre-industrial period, located between 1850 and 1900.The Paris Agreement agreed to keep global warming from raising temperatures by 2°C above pre-industrial levels. If possible, it would be even better to avoid exceeding 1.5°C.
In July 2024, although the temperature increase had stopped, the figures 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels. We are approaching this very alarming limit. And the scary thing is that, depending on the model, reaching 1.5 ºC will not take long.
What is all this about?
Scientists believe that the rise in temperature over the past 13 months is mainly due to two reasons. On the one hand, climate changeGreenhouse gas emissions cause global warming which is found in both the air and the sea surface and is very alarming. In fact, according to models, of the 1.48 ºC that is above pre-industrial levels, at least 1.3 ºC is due to climate change.
But the reason why the rise in temperatures has stopped is because it was also influenced by Child. It’s a cyclical phenomenon that warms the oceans and also affects the water in the atmosphere. It recently peaked, which is why 2023 and early 2024 have broken so many records.
Fortunately, El Niño has already passed and is expected to return soon. Young womananother phenomenon with the opposite effect. It will contribute to lower temperatures. However, we must keep in mind that the El Niño we just experienced was not particularly intense, and even so, the temperature increase was sharp. Climate change had much more to do with it.
On the other hand, we also surpassed peak of the solar cycle. This was seen with auroras in unusual places, but it also affected the temperature. Many factors came together, but climate change was the most important. And as this boom continues to develop, we will continue to have heat waves and record breaking. The cycle has ended, but we will continue to operate well above normal. There is still a need to take action on this.
Source: Hiper Textual
