2024 was a year of warning: What did we learn from climate extremes?

Like a horror movie that we can’t get enough of watching, 2024 is another year marked by disasters linked to extreme weather eventsIt has affected the lives of billions of people on the planet. Sad temperature records are broken every year, and 2024 was no different.

But 2024 was even worse. In addition to being the “hottest year since records began in 1880,” last year was the first year on record when the global average temperature was 1.5°C above pre-war levels across industries, according to NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. The latest report from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

In a recent study published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Dr. An international team of scientists led by Wenxia Zhang analyzed last year’s extreme weather conditions.

The team focused on four main categories: heavy rainfall events, floods, tropical cyclones, and drought. The aim was to understand these and minimize the future impacts of extreme climate conditions.

Can climate extremes be attributed to El Niño?

El Niño, a natural phenomenon that warms the waters of the equatorial Pacific, is often cited as the “bad guy” responsible for altering atmospheric circulation patterns on the planet. Since the current cycle started in June 2023, this meteorological event has certainly had an impact on the distribution of precipitation and dry spells in the winter of 2023/2024, especially in the northern hemisphere.

However, the study does not show that the extreme weather events we observe It exceeds El Niño’s capacity to produce these alone. A scientific analysis shows that global warming acts as an amplifier, meaning it takes the events that would be caused by El Niño and magnifies them, making them much more severe.

The research confirmed that global warming, caused primarily by human action, has intensified the hydrological cycle, increasing the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere and increasing evaporation rates; The result is heavier rains in some areas and more severe droughts in others, even in El. Niño. 2024 was also a record holder for the presence of water vapor in the planet’s atmosphere.

Climate change association: humans x nature

How to attribute human influence on climate change and extreme events? always questioned by powerful interests of international corporationsThe study highlights the importance of citation science. This field of study analyzes how much of climate change and extreme events can be attributed to human impact versus natural causes.

In this sense, scientists use advanced computational modeling, statistics, and meteorological observations to calculate the probability that an extreme event (such as floods in Rio Grande do Sul) is caused by or exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change.

According to co-author Michael Brody of George Mason University in the US, “improving our ability to link extreme events to climate change requires a deeper understanding of how climate systems work,” he explains in a statement. This requires an appointment to be more reliable so that financial and human resources can be managed more efficiently.

Is just predicting weather events enough?

Learning from mistakes in 2024, co-author Piotr Wolski from the University of Cape Town in South Africa says: “Improving the quality of forecasts is important, but acting on them to reduce vulnerabilities is crucial.” An example of this was Hurricane Helene, which hit the southeastern United States in September 2024 and found communities vulnerable and unprepared, even if predicted correctly.

Disasters such as the devastating floods in Brazil and Spain in 2024 highlight the urgency of mitigating the effects of extreme weather and increasing the resilience of relevant communities. This includes various actions such as building more durable structures, informing and raising public awareness, avoiding construction in risky areas, and implementing warning and rapid response systems.

Dr. For Wolski, Just warning is not enough. These warnings need to be communicated clearly, reach those at risk, and respond effectively. What most of the disasters of 2024 saw was a perverse combination of people’s unpreparedness and authorities’ negligence.

How to prepare for future extreme climate events?

If it’s true that we learn from our own mistakes, 2024 becomes a laboratory for understanding climate events and addressing their causes. The new study warns of how human-caused climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of these catastrophic events, affecting the lives of millions of people. Therefore, the development of more effective forecasting systems is of great importance.

However, this alone is not enough. To save lives during disasters, open communication must be followed by rapid action. Taken together, these measures can significantly minimize the impacts caused by extreme weather conditions. What remains for the most vulnerable populations is to adequately prepare them to face the challenges of an increasingly less predictable climate, encouraging rapid and coordinated responses.

The study points out that embracing resilience to climate change is fundamental to reducing vulnerabilities and building a sustainable future. Lack of empathy and understanding of social inequalities leads some leaders to take the cynical view that the “fault” in disasters lies with the victims themselves, who build their homes in risky areas. Recent fires in very expensive properties in the USA refute this thesis.

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