Studies show that the world can enter a dangerous new climate stage.

As in the book The chronic of an announced deathGabriel García Márquez, the United Nations 20 -a is becoming increasingly tight to achieve the climate targets of the Paris agreement. At that time, the signed countries of the agreement agreed to accept the global warming of 2 ° C (with efforts to limit it to 1.5 °) above pre -industrial levels.

The land in real life, we all know. It was always the hottest recorded last year. According to the World Meteorological Organization (MMO), the average global surface temperature At the end of the 19th century, the average temperatures were about 1.6 ° C, People before they start burning fossil fuels on a large scale.

In theory, although it was not enough to say that the Paris agreement was overcome (since targets have been measured for decades), the last two studies have used historical climate data and concluded that very hot years were yes in the past. Violation of a long -term and long -term heating limit.

I look forward: What does new work say about climate change?

In the current model, we will only know whether we can reach the limit of the Paris agreement, so if we complete the 20 -year period with an average temperature of 1.5 ° C in the future. Two new modeling studies published in Nature Climate Change, both, Already in the 20 -year window, we potentially cross the midpoint.

Copernicus Climate Change Service and Berkeley data indicate that June 2024 is the twelfth month in a row in which the average monthly temperatures on the world surface reach a sign of 1.5 ° C. “If we stay in the current political situation, he points out that we are in this 20 -year period until the first year,” says Emanuele Bevacqua from the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research in Leipzig, Germany.

In new studies, authors use models and simulations such as CMIP6 project published by the World Climate Research Program to design future weather conditions. These models include temperature, precipitation and ocean chemistry historical data. CMIP6 contains SSP2-4.5 in different heating scenarios, reflecting the current trends of climate policies.

Working Canada on a new climate stage

In one of the new studies, Alex Cannon, a Canadian Climate Change of Environment and Climate Change, tries to answer the following questions: iz When the world exceeds this limit in the long run? One year more than 1.5 ° C, is the target of the Paris agreement exceeded?

For this purpose, he decided to work with real temperature data for the last 10 years and combined them with model projections for the next 10. Of course, such an approach depends on the reliability of the observed data that feeds the model, and the ability to accurately include the factors that will affect the future climate.

Using CMIP6 projections (English initials for combined models), there are 76% of long-term heating in a scenario (SSP2-4.5) without major changes in global development (SSP2-4.5). “Before seeing 12 months after this border”says Cannon.

European article for hot years isolated in the world

In the second study led by Bevacqua, the team said, “To address a 20 -year period with average warming at this level, not only a tracking exercise of the global temperature recording, but also the emergence of documented risks in the scientific literature at a 1.5 ° C heating level It gives information about ”.

In addition, the authors who used the observations and simulations of CMIP6’s climatic models, but focusing on heating trends between 1981 and 2014 investigated.The question that one year can be seen as an early warning above 1.5 ° C The world has reached a long -term 1.5 ° C.

Based on observed data, climatic models simulations and an idealized experiments, the analyzes confirmed that the Earth is more likely to enter the 20 -year -old window that reached 1.5 ° C. More than 99 %.

Contrary to the slow walking and climate normalization

The findings show that the tragedy will depend on what to do. However, for decades, scientists have warned that the burning of fossil fuels released gases such as carbon dioxide that warms the planet. And what did we do? According to the climate change panel between government, Annual CO2 emissions since 1990 have increased by about 50%. This certainly does not help confront the climate crisis.

Hoping to stop global warming, Science points to the fact that emissions need to reach zero fluid, ie balances the amount of gas emitted by the amount removed from the atmosphere. As part of heating, especially in the oceans, it cannot be reversed, which means that we need to reach “negative fluid emissions üzere to return to the boundaries of 1.5 ° C and below.

Therefore, preventing the realization of the tragedy will only depend on human decisions. Avoiding catastrophic results will depend on harsh measures such as transition to clean energies and removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. However, what is expected now is that the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement announced by President Donald Trump does not disturb the progress made by the rest of the world so far.

If you like the way climate urgency is handled here, share the story on your social networks. Today, information is the most powerful tool to combat misinformation and influence public policies. The day will act for tomorrow!