Over the past two weeks, we all looked at the headlines that flooded the networks about Asteroid 2024This is not less than a field, because it is one of the few objects close to the Earth, which has reached level 3 Turin risk scale Since it was created in 1995. The risk of an asteroid was not very high, but it is much more likely that most asteroids that have been discovered in recent years. Nevertheless, astronomers have already warned that, most likely, the risk would decrease over time, and this is exactly what he did.
Both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) warned that the asteroid of 2024 already in Risk level 0With a very tiny probability of exposure, which may continue to be disguised. To learn more, in Hypertual We talked about this asteroid with Juan Luis CanoCoordinator of the Information Service of the Defense Management Planet Ek.
He confirmed that, indeed, the 2024 asteroid no longer increases the risk to the Earth. But this also informed us of some interesting data, such as the possibility of influencing Moon Or future ESA projects and other spatial agencies that control so many objects of objects close to Earth. In addition, this helped us understand the American slots of probabilities that we have seen in the last days with the exposure to the risk of 2024. In fact, everything was a matter of uncertainty.
Inside and out of the region of uncertainty
2024 asteroid was discovered last month from December 2024 Thanks to the Atlas of Hurtado, in Chile. Soon, in January International asteroid notification network He made the first statement in which a certain risk of influence was mentioned, and from there everything was a dance dance. At first the risk of influence was slightly higher than 1%The field took this year 2024 at 3 on the scale of Turin, which classifies the risk of exposure From 0 to 10.
Then there were several ups and falls. The risk was 3%for a short time, and then a little more than 1%will go down again. Currently, it has decreased greatly. As Canoe tells us, today ESA has calculated the risk of influence 1/79,365which is 0.0013%.
These ups and downs are associated with land transit The zone of the uncertainty of asteroids. But what is it?
In fact, the uncertainty in astronomical terms is exactly the same as in any other area of life. Lack of certainty. When an object close to Earth (Neo) has just discovered, and still few observations of its trajectory, there is great uncertainty in relation to the places through which it will travel. HE Paint A very extensive area in which asteroid can circulate. This is what is known as The area of uncertaintyThe field as more calculations are carried out, this is an increasingly small area, so the uncertainty is reduced.
The Earth was more than a month in this area of uncertainty. Consequently, the asteroid 2024 for 2024. The probability that the effect occurs is calculated by separating the land area between the area of this area of uncertainty. Taking this into account, you can understand why first The risk of exposure has increasedThe field “At the beginning of the area of uncertainty was magnificent, and the earth was inside,” says Kano. “When the area of uncertainty became smaller, and the Earth was still inside, increased the likelihood of influence.”
At the moment, according to the planetary defense expert, two things could happen. It would be possible for the area of uncertainty to continue to decrease to the size of the earth, and inside. This will mean the risk of exposure to 100%. Another opportunity was that when this region was reduced, the land finally remained. It was most likely. In fact, this has already been seen in the past with other asteroids, such as ApophisField
Since then, they continued to make observations, the area of uncertainty has decreased, and, indeed, the Earth eventually remained. “We did not expect that this would happen so soon, but we were so effective, taking very accurate measures that at the end of last week the earth had already left the risk zone.”
The moon is still in the field of the uncertainty of the asteroid of 2024.
We have already seen that the Earth left the area of the uncertainty of the asteroid of 2024. Instead, the moon is still inside, with the probability of exposure, which is about 1.7%.
It is expected that since more observations are done, exactly the same thing happens with the ground. It is unlikely that the moon is influenced. Despite this, Cano notes that if this happens not dangerous. “It would be an event It is very interesting to observe the scientific levelHe thinks. “You could see from the Earth with the help of telescopes, seeing how the crater is formed, how the material is expelled from the surface of the moon … The entire physical process of an object that affects the moon on hypercity.”
There are many more to observe
As Juan Luis Cano explained HypertualThe asteroid of 2024 will remain visible in ground telescopes until April Therefore, there are many more observations, and the area of uncertainty will be reduced much more.
In addition, it has already been confirmed that they will have James Webba Space Telescope Make even more accurate observations. “Our question was whether the persons responsible for James Webb were going to take observations, knowing the output area of risk, but they confirmed that they are interested in taking measures the same.”
Asteroid 2024 does not pose a danger to the Earth, and scientists are still Avizor Eye
The impact of asteroids and other Neo is extremely unlikely. However, given the more or less destructive effects that they will mean, it is important to control them as much as possible. Fortunately, science has more and more means for this.
“It is important that people know that in special agencies there are specific offices specializing in Follow the risk and look for decisions– says Cano. “Today we have discovered about 38,000 NEO. The problem is that there are millions of objects that can be opened. Therefore, the expert insists that you must continue to work on it. “The problem of planetary protection does not know if influence will occur, but Find out when“, remember.” Objects below 10 meters in diameter will not be a problem, but they can be higher than themselves, as with Cheliabinsk 12 years ago or with Tungskaya more than 100. ”
Fortunately, they put funds for determining as many of these objects as possible and minimize risksThe field is possible if in 1908 it would be organized for the current technology, it would be possible to detect and distract the asteroid Tunguska before it destroyed more than 2000 square kilometers of the forest. Although, perhaps, this would be impossible. “If I came directions of the sun, Like Cheliabinsk, we would not see this. These are the most controversial Neos, but planetary protection offices already implement methods for their detection. “Projects that are prepared for the future are important, with telescopes that consider the direction of the Sun and the environment in order to try to detect objects that come in this direction.” This is, for example, the case of the ESA Neomir project.
In short, we can be calm. Asteroid 2024 no longer implies the risk to the Earth, and if someone comes in the way, science will have more and more funds to intercept it in time. There are other scientific problems, the risk of which is more than demonstrated and still does not pay their attention. For example, have you heard about climate change?
Source: Hiper Textual
