Can the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean movement take place in this century?

One of the main concerns of climatic scientists The possible collapse of the Atlantic Ocean current in the next decades. This phenomenon can be aggravated by climate change due to pollution and use of fossil fuels. And this is not an unfounded hypothesis – some work already warns about slowing down of currents in the region.

The ocean circulation system in the Atlantic region carries hot water to the north and cold water south, which is a fundamental process to maintain the stability of global climate standards. This phenomenon, known as the Southern circulation of the Atlantic (AMOC), may have significant effects due to climate change caused by human action.

If this, the effects on the global climate may be severe, Trigger a series of environmental imbalances.

For example, billions of people may be affected by changes in the rain models on the planet and cool various parts of Europe and increase the sea level on the eastern coast of the United States, as well as other phenomena.

In a study published in Nature magazine, Met Office and Exeter University, England, scientists, They used data on climate change to create computer simulations and analyze what could happen when AMOC collapsed in this century.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktnhtq2ytgo

The results show that transformations will be as harsh as scriptures of science fiction films, and even trigger even over -cooling. It should not be surprising that researchers are trying to understand what could happen to the Earth until 2100.

This is not the first work on this issue; By 2023, another article has already pointed out that AMOC would probably collapse until 2025 later. This instability has been a warning from scientists for years due to the acceleration of the climate crisis.

“The Southern Circulation of the Atlantic (AMOC), which is necessary for the transportation of heat to the north in the Atlantic Ocean, should weaken due to global warming and bring significant climatic effects worldwide. However, the scope of this weakening is vaguely varying between climatic models. In addition, some statistical indicators show that there is a close collapse. ”

The collapse of the Atlantic Ocean

To assess the effect of Amoc’s possible collapse, scientists in the new study performed simulations with the 34 calculation model. From the scenarios with excessive weather conditions caused by climate change, to situations reflecting the current state of ocean circulation.

Although global warming accelerates this process, experts say that the collapse of Amoc is not rare because they have occurred at other times for thousands of years.

34 Simulation has shown a collapse before the end of the century, However, scientists believe that the worst scenario can take place after 2100. In an official statement, Jonathan Baker met the office ochinography and the main author of the study, warned that it doesn’t mean we’re safe. This century strengthens the need to pay attention to the changes in AMOC.

Even if there is no security guarantee for the future of the Atlantic Ocean, Baker says the results of the calculation models are a reassuring signal for humanity. However, a study conducted by the climate research in 2018 drew attention to the contrary, suggesting that Amoc is a possibility of collapse.

Researchers in this previous study state that Baker’s studies do not contradict the results of his studies, because some features described in his research also emerge in the new study. Probably the difference may be in the approach used.

Models also estimate that AMOC’s weakening will lead to development. A stronger version of the Pacific circulation is to compensate for the effects of changes..

Even if the current weakens only before collapsing, simulations show significant consequences such as losses in agricultural production and changes in fish populations. Fortunately, the freezing of various parts of Europe, which is provided in case of total collapse, will probably not happen.

“Our results reveal the mechanisms that stabilize AMOC, the past and future changes of this circulation, as well as the effects on ecosystems and ocean biogeochemistry. They show that it is necessary to better understand the circulation of the South and Indo-Pacific Ocean to accurately predict future changes in Amoc.

How does the Atlantic Ocean work work?

In short, when it reaches Amoc Arctic, hot water cools and creates sea ice. This process increases the density of the water as it holds less salt, causing the remaining water to sink and withdraw to the south.. This mechanism is what leads to ocean circulation.

In Greenland, with global warming and melting ice, a high amount of fresh water is poured into the ocean, which reduces its intensity as it contains less salt. At the lowest density, the current responsible for the transport of this water can slow down and trigger the effects on the global climate.

Based on the results of the study, Baker said that the Antarctica ocean could help run it even if the circulation in Atlantic weakened due to climate change. Through a phenomenon called resurrection, The winds in the region would draw cold water from depths to the surface, where he would warm up and contribute to the continuity of Amoc’s circulation.

How do scientists measure the power of this trend? Amoc is evaluated in Sverdrups (SV), a unit used to measure the water volume transported by ocean currents. Currently, the flow rate decreased in 17 Sverdrup, but about 0.8 SV decreased in ten years – 19 SV in 2004.

For many experts, the collapse can occur by reaching 5 Sverdrup, while Baker believes that it will only be if the value reaches zero.

Climate changes already have various effects on the world, and scientists analyze signs that may propose even more problematic transformations in the future. Do you want to know more? Studies, understand how the world can enter a dangerous new climate stage. Until next time!