An earthquake cannot be predicted with certainty. In fact, there are many myths about it, for example, if many small earthquakes occur in one place, the voltage is released, which prevents another larger one from occurring. Unlike meteorological phenomena, can’t predict relatively accurate to help the population get to safety. However, in recent years, scientists have come up with several factors to help calculate the probability that at a given point there will be big earthquakes in the coming years. There is everything, but one of the most curious factors is the presence of dead animals in sea ​​bottom.

Well, not the animals themselves, but what is left of them. And according to a study recently published in lithosthe accumulation of calcite from the accumulation of dead single-celled organisms over millions of years can affect how two lithospheric plates interact with each other.

Of course, the presence of this substance is not the only factor that affects, since a lot depends on it. ability to dissolve in water. If it dissolves, the plates will have more freedom of movement. On the other hand, if it remains solid, it can act as a buffer, preventing small frictions that help relieve tension and facilitating the sudden release of energy in the form of a large earthquake. Therefore, studying the state of dissolution of calcite in large faults is a good way to predict possible earthquakes.

How is an earthquake formed?

before talking about calcite, we must have a clear understanding of how earthquakes occur. Broadly speaking, they occur in friction zonen between an oceanic plate that is sinking and a continental one that is rising above it. If the contact between the plates were sufficiently lubricated, the movement would be smooth and there would be no earthquakes.

However, sometimes they reach stir up tension, which are released suddenly, causing earthquakes. Therefore, in order to predict where strong earthquakes might occur, it is important to look for faults, which are cracks in the ground where two blocks have slipped off each other.

The study, which has just been published by scientists from the University of Victoria, focuses on hikurangi glitch. The largest in the vicinity of New Zealand. It is known that there is a large amount of calcite in the plate collision zone, but how can this affect the generation of earthquakes?

Calcite and water temperature

As we have seen, if the calcite dissolves, the collision of the plates will be more lubricated and stresses will not build up. On the other hand, if it is harder, there may be more chance of earthquakes.

Now what does it depend on? solubility? According to these scholars, the key lies in water temperatureas it dissolves better at lower temperatures. The problem, in addition to the warming that is affecting oceans around the world, is that as the depth of the Earth increases, the temperature gets much higher. It can increase to 10°C per kilometer. And, since this is a very deep fault, it is expected that there will come a point when the calcite will hardly dissolve, which will increase the likelihood of large earthquakes. In addition, as a consequence, a tsunami of great intensity could arise.

But precisely because of their depth, these hotter calcites cannot be studied. Therefore, the authors of the study used as an approximation the exposed layers of limestone, mudstone and silt on the local coast, on southeast of Martinboroughon the North Island.

They don’t have any results at the moment, but the connection between calcite and earthquakes seems clear. Now it remains to extrapolate the behavior of these materials in Martinborough to the inaccessible layers of Hikuranga. This is vital because it is estimated that there 26% chance development of a major earthquake on the fault in the next 50 years. A better knowledge of the area and foresight of events can help you take the necessary precautions as much as possible. And all because there were some animals that died millions of years ago and settled at the bottom of the fault. The connections that occur in nature are fascinating.

Source: Hiper Textual

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