Half of the glaciers will melt this century and we can’t avoid it

Study published in the journal The science paints a bleak picture of the future of humanity. The researchers found that half of the glaciers will melt by the end of this century due to global warming. Worst of all, there is nothing we can do to prevent this, even if countries comply with the commitments signed in the Paris Agreement.

A team of scientists led by Dr. David Rounce, a civil engineer and environmentalist at Carnegie Mellon University, used satellite data to map thousands of glaciers on the planet. The study, which bears the name Global Glacier Change in the 21st Century: Every Temperature Rise Mattersmentions that 49% of glaciers will disappear if temperatures remain within 1.5 degrees Celsius. If no action is taken, the outcome will be worse, as we will lose 68% of the glaciers in 2100.

Among the most affected Pyrenees and Alpsthese last by 2050 they will be 70% smaller. One of the most obvious examples of global warming occurred in Switzerland in mid-2022. The glaciers of Zenfleuron and Sex Rouge broke away, exposing an area covered in ice since the time of the Roman Empire.

Melting glaciers will cause sea ​​level rise, although the value will depend on our actions. If countries followed the Paris Agreement, the average would increase by 90 mm, although if they do nothing, at 2.7 degrees Celsius, we would be facing a rise of up to 115mm.. This will lead to natural disasters such as floods and endanger the water supply of 2 billion people.

Glacier melt is inevitable

Unlike previous studies, the work by Roundes and company is one of the most detailed. The researchers used a satellite dataset that maps over 200,000 glaciers. According to the author, most of the glaciers that will be lost are small and have an area of ​​​​less than 1 sq. km. km. However, it is they who provide the livelihood of millions of people, since they are a source of water.

Mountain glaciers, perennial ice masses, with the exception of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, are a critical water resource for nearly two billion people and are threatened by global warming.

Under the COP26 climate commitments, the global mean temperature is projected to rise by +2.7°C, resulting in a sea level rise of 115 ± 40 millimeters and causing widespread melt in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.

Photo: Julan Shearwood New (Wikimedia Commons)

The results of this study will dispel the doubts expressed earlier, although they do not take into account the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. According to Francisco Navarro, a professor at the Polytechnic University of Madrid, these ice sheets contribute significantly to sea level rise.

In the last decade, the huge ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland have surpassed the contribution to sea level rise caused by the melting of more than 200,000 small glaciers distributed around the planet, which until recently were the world’s dominant ice masses. contribution to sea level rise.

Navarro, who was not involved in the study, agrees with Antonio Ruiz de Elvira, professor of applied physics at the University of Alcala. According to Ruiz de Elvira, the consequences for humanity are much greater if the glaciers of Greenland descend into the sea.

Professor points the role of glaciers in the distribution of water. “The disappearance of the Sierra Nevada glaciers means an almost complete reduction in the availability of water there. [en California] since those dates,” he said. “In Spain, the same thing happens with the glaciers of the Pyrenees. In India and China, they are critically dependent on the Himalayan glaciers,” he noted in responses received by Science Media Center of Spain.