Gustavo Petro and Federico Gutiérrez have a leg up in the runoff to determine Colombia’s next presidentaccording to u numbersA new survey by companies Guarumo and EcoAnalítica and this reveals TIME today.
The Percepción País study has the added value of being the freshest, as the fieldwork is done between Monday and Friday. 2,132 Colombians were asked face-to-face: If there were an election next Sunday, which presidential candidate would you vote for?
(You may be interested: Poll: Petro leads (43.6%); Fico closes the lead (26.7%).)
The responses were: Gustavo Petro, 36.4 percent; Federico Gutierrez, 30.6 percent; Rodolfo Hernandez, 12.4 percent; Sergio Fajardo, 6.9 percent; Ingrid Betancourt, 1.3 percent; John Milton Rodriguez, 1.1 percent; Enrique Gomez, 1.1 percent; Luis Pérez, 0.2 percent; blank vote, 5.7 percent; and I don’t know or not responding, 4.3 percent.
All respondents said they would vote on Sunday, May 29.
Political science analysts warn that a poll is a snapshot of a particular moment, not a prediction. So to date and with this image there are five results:
First. Petro and Fico can smile because they’ve both cleared enough lead with their remaining six opponents to feel like they’re going to the second round. The distance to the island is 24 points. historical pact on the third and 18th of the applicant team for colombia after him.
(Read: What does Andrés Pastrana’s addition to Federico Gutiérrez mean?).
Despite this, neither gets 50 points plus one vote to win in the first round. In other words, according to this poll, Colombians will go to the polls on Sunday, June 19 to choose the winner. This can be seen in comparing the results of surveys of the same firms, even though both have sustained growth.
32.7 percent in Petro March; 34 percent at the beginning of April and now 36.4 percent. And Fico hit 7.7 percent in March; At 25 percent at the beginning of April and already at 30.6 percent. In other words, it has increased by 23 points in just two months. A leap from comparison to other candidates.
(Also: Gustavo Petro gets support from a group of young people from the Liberal Party).
Second. Rodolfo Hernandez confirmed in this campaign that this is an electoral phenomenon. In vague language, sometimes without measuring forms, a campaign team without media figures or election barons and headquartered in Bucaramanga reinforces itself in third place.
The former mayor of the Santander department’s capital was 8.2 percent in March; At the beginning of April, it rose by 9.3 percent by one point; and now three more: 12.4 percent.
Third. The fall of the Esperanza Central Coalition candidate. 9.1 percent in March; It rose slightly to 9.5 percent in early April and is now down to 6.9 percent.
With these data, it can be concluded that the center and center left have lost their importance until now and Colombians will prefer antagonistic political positions.
(To read: Rodolfo Hernández to Fajardo: ‘I hope you keep your word and support me’)
Quarter. In line with these results, the possibility of an alliance between Hernández and Fajardo remains in the air. This formula, which would have sounded so appealing a month ago, is late in form and content. The ballots are printed, and although one gets off the bus to push the other, the document to be given to the voters at the ballot box will have his photograph.
Alfonso Portela, former delegate registrar and expert on election mechanics, told EL TIEMPO that it was impossible to make changes at this point. The only exception to this would be the incapacity or death of one of the currently registered formula members.
However, he said withdrawal “could happen at any time” and that, in this particular case, depending on the Registry’s hours, the most that could be done was to “remove one of the two boxes”. card choice.
The survey also reveals a new political reality. Until a few hours ago, the dialogue between the two applicants was fluid and an agreement seemed likely. In the Fajardo campaign, they were convinced that the results would be positive and the engineer would retire. But the opposite happened.
In fact, these data are more or less similar to the Invamer survey released Friday morning. That got Hernandez excited to the point: “I’m at 14 percent and he’s at 6 percent unfortunately. This result was not invented by me, I did not conduct the survey. What we hope is that he will keep his word, keep it and support me for the rest of the day or tomorrow or next week.
Fajardo replied that he is not retiring: “We entered politics out of faith and for the higher purpose of Colombia, to transform politics. “Today we reiterate that we have moved forward, that we know how to fight, and that within 30 days we will demonstrate that we are the best option for change.”
Fifth. With these results, it can be considered that four of the eight presidential candidates will no longer play any decision-making role. Ingrid’s numbers, 1.3 percent; John Milton, 1.1 percent; Gómez 1.1 percent and Pérez 0.2 percent are below the poll’s 2.5 percent margin of error.
(Also: ‘You should know how to withdraw’: Betancourt considers alliance possibility)
This means that at any moment one of them can throw in the towel. “Two of us here out of three have to resign. I am prepared to do so to give Colombia an option. If it’s Rodolfo first, I’m fine; If it’s Sergio, I’d love to, I don’t have a problem. We need to unify Colombia,” Ingrid said recently.
But what would be the outcome if Petro and Fico got tickets to compete in the second round? Petro, 43.8 percent, according to Guarumo and EcoAnalítica; and Gutiérrez, 40.9 percent.
In the previous measurement of the same survey, from the beginning of April, Fico was ahead with 43.5 percent and was three points ahead of Petro with 40.1 percent.
With both polls on the table, a technical tie is shown between the two, which predicts a real final vote.
“These numbers confirm that, unless something unusual happens, Petro and Gutiérrez are the two most supported for the second round, which is most likely today,” says Yann Basset, professor at Universidad del Rosario. “A first-round win seems unlikely, but not entirely impossible,” he says.
(Also: Presidential candidates: these are the vice presidential formulas)
The study by Guarumo and EcoAnalítica is the third study published in less than a week in Colombia to produce more or less similar results.
In the runoff scenario between Petro and Rodolfo Hernández, the Historical Pact’s candidate would win 44.5% compared to 37.1 for his opponent.
Petro and Gutiérrez will go to the second round, according to the voting intent poll conducted by Invamer this Friday for Noticias Caracol, Blu Radio and El Espectador.
According to these data, while Petro ranks first with 43.6 percent; Gutiérrez, second, 26.7 percent. They are followed by Hernández with 13.9 percent; Fajardo, with 6.5 percent; Rodriguez, with 1.5 percent; Gómez, with 1.1 percent; Ingrid with 0.5 percent and Pérez by the same number.
In this, Petro has an advantage in the runoff scenario. The Historical Pact’s candidate gets 52.4 percent and the former mayor of Medellin 45.2 percent.
And eight days ago, someone from the National Counseling Center (CNC) for Semana was released. In this case, Petro would get 38 percent of the vote, while Gutiérrez would get 23.8 percent. Hernández is in third place with 9.6 percent, and Sergio Fajardo marks 7.2 percent.
In this CNC poll for Semana, Petro would beat Fico by 7.9 percent in the second round. Petro would reach 44.8% and Fico would reach 36.9%.
But for now, Andrés Segura, a political communications expert who has been following the campaign day by day, invites us to concentrate on the first round. “What happens in the runoff scenarios is when they ask for the first round before the consultations. “They do give a guide, but it’s not a good reflection because voters are still unclear about what the runoff political landscape is like,” he says.
Candidates are aware of this fact and this Sunday they each have campaign events in various parts of the national geography. It’s about redoubling efforts, because surveys also show how they’re doing in each region.
Analysis of these results has been done by researcher political scientist Nadia Pérez Guevara at the Institute for Political Studies at the Autonomous University of Bucaramanga: “Gutiérrez’s resounding victory in Antioquia is not surprising,” he says. “It’s not like Petro’s location in the Caribbean, Pacific and Bogotá.”
“But in the case of other campaigns in the eastern region, such as in Fajardo, that cannot even be located in Boyacá and Santander, yes. former Governor Carlos Amaya.”
So he sees this geographic area where Hernandez has imposed the best numbers ever.
However, for the few analysts consulted by this newspaper in Colombia – with a few exceptions, such as that of Álvaro Uribe – it is difficult to verify that a politician can endorse the votes of others. But whether that’s the case in these elections or not, it’s undeniable that Hernández has a favor at the table that allows him to negotiate.
The coming days will be hectic. In a country with so much information, in a country with so much information, there are still those who think that anything is possible. Others believe these three surveys overlap in showing trends that will likely continue through May 29.
Legal entity conducting the survey: Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalytica Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS Authorized entity: Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalytica Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS
Source of investment: Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS
General purpose: Questions about the president’s positive image and voting intention.
Working universe: Colombian men and women over the age of 18 residing in Colombia, excluding the former National Territories and the San Andrés archipelago, who have expressed their intention to vote in the next presidential election.
Sample design: sample design is possible.
Sample size: 2,132 surveys.
Collection technique: face-to-face survey.
Collection date: From 25 to 29 April 2022. For whom it is requested: see collection form.
Error range: margin of error is 2.5% with 95% confidence. Example distribution: The surveys were conducted in the following municipalities: Barranquilla (113), Bello (61), Bogota DC (286), Bucaramanga (87), Cali (97), Cartagena (74), Ciénaga (46), Cúcuta (73), Dosquebradas (77) , Floridablanca (63), Girón (24), Granada (39), Maicao (23), Manizales (99), Medellin (123), Palmira (74), Pamplona (61), Pasto (117), Pereira (66) , Riohacha (69), Risaralda (29), Santa Marta (73), Soacha (49), Soledad (113), Tocaima (3), Turbaco (63), Uribia (59), Villavicencio (71).
Sampling frames: municipalities National Census. Statistician: Gustavo Romero Cruz.
ARMANDO NEIRA
POLICY EDITOR
On Twitter: @armandoneira
Source: Exame
