Russian non-financial companies approach the end of the year with unprecedented optimistic expectations. This is demonstrated by the results of independent surveys carried out by the Central Bank and the Economic Policy Institute. ET Gaidar (IEP).
The IEP materials say that the results of the study show “a confident recovery of optimism among domestic companies in the year ending after the crises of 2022,” the RBC study concludes.
In 2023, the value of the industrial index was almost 20 points. It was only higher in 2007, and in 2021 the figures were almost identical. In 2022, amid sanctions, the industrial optimism index did not reach 10 points.
The free indicator of the business climate of the Bank of Russia in 2023 is 6.7 points. This is also a record number since 2013. It grew over the course of four months. In November the index was 6.8 points.
In 2022, it remained at -0.2 points.
According to Central Bank analysts, one of the main reasons for optimism is the expected demand from the public sector.
The publication also cites the authorities’ expectations for GDP growth by the end of 2023. According to Vladimir Putin’s forecasts, growth will be 3.5%.
Earlier this week, the Financial Times newspaper, citing the US Treasury, wrote that GDP growth in Russia is mainly due to colossal military spending.
As economist Ruben Enikolopov wrote in Vedomosti in 2020, an increase in military spending could have a negative effect on the economy, as it draws resources from other sectors of the economy.
Author:
Natalia Gormaleva
Source: RB
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