The quality of weather forecasts has now improved. However, it cannot be said to be infallible.
Nikolaos Kourenzes, professor of computer science at the University of Skövde and an expert in the field of forecasting, believes that expectations from forecasts should be taken into account. Short-term forecasts are often based on large weather simulation models.
Forecasts can also accurately display various weather data. These are solar radiation, wind and atmospheric pressure. But if the data slightly mispredicts the temperature, most people will ignore the entire forecast.
For most people, weather is linked to personal experience. We’re also more likely to remember bad predictions, like bad weather ruining a planned outdoor lunch.
Another thing to consider is the complexity of the simulation models. Weather systems are chaotic, and our understanding of their underlying physics is still incomplete. Small mistakes can have significant consequences over time.
Sometimes short-term predictions are reliable, but over time, a small initial mistake can cause them to be inaccurate in the long run.
News materials cannot be equated with a doctor’s prescription. Consult an expert before making a decision.
Source: Ferra
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