The study highlights a “fundamental conflict” in scientific research: While taking risks can lead to groundbreaking discoveries, it also entails significant uncertainty and potential failure.
Their adapted model, based on the economic theory of hidden action, shows that the unobservable nature of both effort and risk creates a complex incentive structure for researchers. Scientists face a dilemma in which incentives to exert effort can discourage risk taking. High-risk projects, while potentially more rewarding, can fail and be misinterpreted as “lack of care” rather than “ambitious effort.” This career-threatening risk forces researchers to choose safer projects that “provide clearer evidence of effort and are less likely to fail.”
The study suggests that this conservative approach is a rational response to the current compensation structure in the scientific community. The authors suggest that changing the reward structure could encourage riskier research.
Source: Ferra
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