The growth of wages of Russians in 2025 will be halved due to the cooling of the economy and increasing costs for entrepreneurs, according to experts interviewed by Vedomosti. According to its forecast, growth rates in real terms (adjusted for inflation) will slow to 2-4%, while in 2024 they could be 8%.

Experts predict wage growth will halve by 2025
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According to economist Viktor Tunev, after a nominal increase in wages of 15-20% in 2024, we should expect a slowdown to 10% nominally and, in real terms, to 2-4%. Denis Popov, an expert at the PSB Analytics and Expertise Center, who expects growth of about 2%, and Anton Struchenevsky, chief economist at SberCIB Investment Research, agreed with the forecast, according to which the growth of real wages in 2025 could be of 3%.

According to the Central Bank’s December report, over the past year, only 19% of companies increased their employees’ salaries by more than 20%, 43% of employers began paying their employees by 10% and 20% more and 38% of companies increased salaries by 10%.

One of the reasons for the slowdown in wage growth in 2025 is the cooling of the economy against the background of a record key rate, noted Elena Akhmedova, chief economist at Euler Analytical Technologies JSC. At the same time, the expert stressed that she still sees no signs of a cooling in the labor market: if in 2022 there were less than two open vacancies for every registered unemployed, in 2024 this figure would be close to six.

According to Alexander Safonov, a professor at the Government Financial University, this year the pace of wage growth will slow down due to high interest rates on loans and increased costs for companies.

Experts interviewed by the newspaper predicted that high demand for employees and high labor costs will continue in 2025. According to the director of the SuperJob research center, Natalya Golovanova, the most serious shortage of personnel is currently observed in the service sector, in IT companies, as well as in manufacturing and logistics companies.

According to Avito Work data for 2024, the highest-paid profession in Russia was a dentist, whose salary increased by 63% over the year, up to 150-350 thousand rubles per month.

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Author:

Mikhail Zelenin

Source: RB

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I am a professional journalist and content creator with extensive experience writing for news websites. I currently work as an author at Gadget Onus, where I specialize in covering hot news topics. My written pieces have been published on some of the biggest media outlets around the world, including The Guardian and BBC News.

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