“Difficult conditions of strength”: what will happen with the key rate and how it will affect business

Why the key rate will not be reduced

“At the next meeting, the Central Bank will not adjust the key rate and leave it at 21%. To mitigate monetary policy, conditions have not yet developed. It is important that the Bank of Russia cools and has a restriction effect on inflation. I think the trend can change closer to the end of spring if stable disinflar trends are being formed at that time, ”he told RB.ru. Yevgeny Goryunov, head of the Gaidar Institute of the Gaidar Institute.

The head of the Mind Money Chief (former “Cerich”) Julia Hosishko recalled that the regulator in a recent report announced a decrease in inflation, which means that a hard monetary policy provides results. “Therefore, the high rate remains the tool to control inflation and stabilization of the economy and, in my opinion, in the near future we will not talk about a decrease,” said the expert.

Analyze forecasts

• Sberbank – 21%
• VTB – 21%
• “Gaidar Institute” – 21%
• Solid Broker – 21%
• “Finams” -21% (does not exclude growth at 22-23%)
• SDM-BANK-21% (does not exclude growth at 22-23%)
• Uralsib – 21%
• “Svombank” – 21%
• Promssvyazbank – 21%
• Russian standard: 21% (do not exclude 22% growth)
• Mind Money – 21%
• Broker Creditservice – 21%

Consensus prognosis-21%

Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis of the FG Finams, believes that the high inflation rate in November 2024 and January 2025 and the inflationary expectations of the population and the business have been in the local maximum of the population practically excluding the possibility of transition to reduce the rate in February.

If the loans return to the growth rate of 2023-2024, it may be necessary to increase the key rate even more, added the chief economist of VTB Rodion Latypov.

The Russian standard bank does not exclude that the rate can be increased by 100 basic points. As explained by the director of the Department of Operations at the Bank of the Maxim Tymoshenko Bank, the option with a decrease in the rate is not even considered, but there is the possibility that an increase will occur. “The regulator is extremely clearly” communicates “with the market that the high rate with us for a long time and the economy should adapt to it,” said the expert.

When to wait for a bet

Experts believe that the Bank of Russia can return to the issue of reducing the rate in the second half of 2025.

According to Ilya Fedorov, chief economist of the BCS investment world, deposit rates have already begun to decrease in advance. “In the basic version, we expect a decrease in the key rate in June, but perhaps the cycle will begin before, in April, if the deceleration in the economy is faster than the Russian bank expects. The key rate for the end of the year can be reduced to 16%, ”believes the expert.

According to their forecast, credit rates will decrease after a key rate with a delay of two to three months.

Denis Popov, expert center manager to analyze and PSB experience, is not waiting for the mitigation of the Central Bank’s policy before the second half of the year. “Now monetary conditions are quite strict to attract new loans by business, especially small and medium enterprises. Taking into account the prognosis trajectory of the key rate (its long -term retention to the level of 21% and a slow decrease in the second half of the year to 18% of the year), the business will probably reduce the credit activity, which will hit Investment plans and require the activation of optimization strategies, “says Popov.

How a record rate affects small and medium enterprises

According to Goryunov of the Gaidar Institute, the high rate does not have a strong influence on small and medium enterprises (SME), since among them the part of loan arrears are relatively small. In addition, representatives of the SME of the agricultural sector have access to preferential loans, the expert recalled.

Goryunov added that among SMEs there is a high proportion of commercial companies, so for them to increase inflation of the last time it literally means an increase in income. “In the first half of 2024, commercial activity, as well as the total debt of SMEs, grew, and the number of companies with expired debt was reduced. And this is despite the fact that even then the bets were quite high. Of course, the high rate restricts the total demand and increases the cost of meeting the debt for SMEs, which is not favorable, from its point of view, a factor. But in general, the situation for this segment of the economy does not seem critical, ”added the expert.

According to Julia Haseshko of Mind Money, the impact of the bet on small businesses is traditionally limited. “The loans were not emitted massively before, so the current levels of bets for this segment are not a determining factor. The big companies have already adapted: someone received subsidies, someone adjusted the work strategy. In general, the Central Bank’s policy remains predictable: strict conditions remain in force and the business remains alternative sources of financing or review of growth and efficiency models, ”believes the expert.

As Popov of PSB explained, as monetary conditions are softened, companies will resume interest in loans to increase the volume of activities, refinance expensive loans and strengthen investment activity in 2026-2027. In addition, part of the economy, which has a high margin or access to preferential conditions of credit financing, will continue to develop dynamic development.

“This applies to the strategic and high -tech industries that actively work in the implementation of the state order, the development of infrastructure and the strengthening of technological sovereignty,” Popov concluded.